With a sharp drop in motorcycle supply, prices are unlikely to increase at the end of the year.

According to the General Statistics Office, domestic motorcycle production in September was estimated at 259,300 units, a decrease of 16.4% compared to August (310,200 units) and the lowest level in six months. However, compared to September 2024, production still increased by 6.6%.

The slowdown after five consecutive months of rapid growth indicates a supply adjustment by manufacturers. Experts predict that car prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly at the peak of the year-end season due to abundant accumulated inventory.

Production adjustments following a period of rapid growth.

Including the third quarter of 2025, the total number of new motorcycles produced is estimated at 881,800 units, an increase of 5.3% compared to the same period last year. For the first nine months of the year, production reached approximately 2,448,400 units, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period last year. These figures show that production maintains an upward trend year-on-year, despite short-term monthly adjustments.

From a supply-demand perspective, the decrease in September could be the result of factories balancing production after a previous period of increased output, avoiding the risk of excessive inventory levels as they enter the year-end sales season.

Electric motorcycles are expanding in scale, increasing competition.

The Vietnam Motorcycle Manufacturers Association (VAMM), comprising Honda Vietnam, Piaggio Vietnam, Vietnam Suzuki, SYM Vietnam, and Yamaha Motor Vietnam, currently accounts for approximately 70% of motorcycle sales. Several members have begun producing electric motorcycles, adding an alternative to traditional gasoline-powered models.

Simultaneously, businesses outside of VAMM – especially in the electric motorcycle sector – have accelerated significantly. VinFast stands out with its wide range of electric vehicles, from entry-level to high-end. Brands like Pega, Dibao, Yadea, DatBike, and Detech continue to expand production to meet growing demand. This shift creates more competition and helps maintain more stable prices.

Year-end selling prices: Upward pressure is not significant.

Despite a sharp drop in supply in September, many believe that the scenario of shortages and price increases for popular car models is unlikely to repeat itself as in previous years. The main reason is that accumulated inventory from the production phase remains high, while the market now offers more electric vehicle options at diverse price points, thus diversifying demand.

In the medium term, the expansion rate of electric motorcycles, along with urban traffic management policies (such as regulations on low-emission zones in certain localities when implemented), may continue to impact the demand structure, thereby affecting the production strategies of businesses.

Main data table

Prospects

With production in the first nine months still increasing year-on-year and existing inventory, new motorcycle prices are not expected to rise significantly towards the end of the year. The supply structure is becoming more diversified thanks to the rapid growth of electric motorcycles, thereby reducing the risk of localized shortages in various segments.

The developments in the final quarter of the year will depend on the product launch schedule, the production and sales strategies of major brands in VAMM as well as the electric motorcycle group, and the actual purchasing power in the retail market.

CTVX