Motorbike supply drops sharply, prices unlikely to increase at year-end
September saw an estimated 259,300 motorbikes shipped, down 16.4% from the previous month but up 6.6% year-on-year; year-end prices are forecast to be stable thanks to abundant inventory.
According to the General Statistics Office, domestic motorcycle production in September was estimated at 259,300 units, down 16.4% compared to August (310,200 units) and the lowest level in 6 months. However, compared to September 2024, production still increased by 6.6%.
The slowdown after 5 consecutive months of hot growth shows the rhythm of supply adjustment of manufacturers. Experts say that car prices at the peak at the end of the year are unlikely to fluctuate much thanks to the abundant accumulated inventory.
Production adjustment moves after the overheating period
Including the third quarter of 2025, the total number of new motorbikes produced is estimated at 881,800 units, up 5.3% over the same period. Accumulated in 9 months, the output reached about 2,448,400 units, up 5.9% over the same period last year. The above figures show that the production sector maintains an increasing trend year-on-year, despite short-term adjustments on a monthly basis.
From a supply-demand perspective, the decline in September could be the result of factories balancing output after the previous production ramp-up cycle, avoiding the risk of too high inventory entering the year-end sales season.
Electric motorbikes expand in scale, increasing competition
The Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers (VAMM), comprising Honda Vietnam, Piaggio Vietnam, Vietnam Suzuki, SYM Vietnam and Yamaha Motor Vietnam, currently accounts for approximately 70% of vehicle sales. Some members have begun producing electric motorbikes, adding an option to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.
In parallel, the group of enterprises outside VAMM – especially in the electric motorbike segment – accelerated significantly. VinFast stands out with its electric vehicle portfolio ranging from popular to high-end. Brands such as Pega, Dibao, Yadea, DatBike or Detech continue to expand production scale to meet increasing demand. This shift creates more competition, contributing to keeping the price level more stable.
Year-end selling price: Not much pressure to increase
Despite the sharp decrease in September supply, many opinions say that the scenario of shortages and price increases in "hot" car models is unlikely to repeat like in previous years. The main reason is that accumulated inventory from the high production period still remains, while the market has more electric car options with diverse prices, dispersing demand.
In the medium term, the expansion of electric motorbikes and urban traffic management policies (such as regulations on low-emission zones in some localities when implemented) may continue to impact the demand structure, thereby affecting the production strategy of enterprises.
Main data table
| Timeline | Production (estimated) | Compared to the previous period/same period |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 310,200 units | — |
| September 2025 | 259,300 units | -16.4% month-on-month; +6.6% year-on-year |
| Quarter 3/2025 | 881,800 units | +5.3% YoY |
| 9T/2025 | 2,448,400 units | +5.9% YoY |
Prospects
With production still increasing year-on-year in the first 9 months and existing inventories, new motorbike prices are unlikely to increase much at the end of the year. The supply structure is becoming more diversified thanks to the acceleration of electric motorbikes, thereby reducing the risk of local shortages in segments.
Developments in the last quarter of the year will depend on the product launch rhythm, production and sales strategies of major companies in VAMM as well as the electric motorbike business group, and actual purchasing power in the retail market.
