AI will eliminate millions of jobs by 2035.
A new report by the UK's National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) warns that artificial intelligence (AI) and automation could eliminate up to 3 million low-skilled jobs in the UK by 2035, while creating strong demand for highly specialized professions.
According to NFER researchers, the workforce most at risk from the wave of automation is not software engineers or technology specialists, but rather those working in crafts, operating machinery, or holding administrative positions.
These are jobs that can easily be replaced by robots, automated systems, or AI models that can handle repetitive tasks at a lower cost and faster speed.
Contrary to popular concerns, the report indicates that professions requiring critical thinking, analytical, or managerial skills are projected to experience strong growth. NFER suggests that AI could increase the workload for professionals “at least in the short and medium term,” forcing businesses to hire more highly skilled personnel instead of laying off staff.
The report estimates that by 2035, the UK economy will create approximately 2.3 million new jobs. However, this distribution is uneven, with low-skilled workers being the most disadvantaged if they are not retrained.
Contrary to previous studies: Will AI really "attack" high-paying jobs?
The NFER study paints a less extreme picture than recent predictions. For example, a report from King's College London published last October showed that high-paying companies saw an average 9.4% reduction in staff between 2021 and 2025, a period coinciding with the AI boom, particularly following the introduction of ChatGPT.
The UK government also listed professions "most exposed to AI," including management consultants, psychologists, and legal professionals. Meanwhile, professions such as construction workers, roofers, and athletes were assessed as having the least risk of being replaced by automation.
These differences make the debate about the impact of AI on the UK workforce far more complex than simply describing it as "AI will steal everyone's jobs."
Businesses are starting to cut staff, but the reason isn't entirely due to AI.
Last week, the UK-based international law firm Clifford Chance laid off around 50 business services employees in London, representing 10% of its workforce. The company stated that AI was only part of the reason, alongside a shift in its operating model.
Similarly, PwC – one of the four major global consulting firms – has withdrawn its plan to recruit an additional 100,000 employees between 2021 and 2026. According to company leaders, "the world has changed" and AI is transforming the nature of recruitment.
However, Jude Hillary, co-author of the NFER report, argues that these cut figures do not fully reflect the true future of the labor market.
He explained that many businesses are still "wait and see" rather than actually changing their human resources strategies. Economic instability, rising national insurance contributions, and a cautious mindset are causing them to pause recruitment instead of quickly transitioning to large-scale automation.
The biggest challenge: Low-skilled workers are unlikely to be able to relearn a new trade.
Hillary Clinton believes the impact of AI will not be a simple one-sided affair. Instead, AI could increase demand for specialized positions such as data analysts, AI engineers, and digital project managers; decrease demand for entry-level office positions; and narrow opportunities for those in repetitive, highly predictable jobs.
Most worrying, he said, is the group of low-skilled workers, who may lose their jobs but will find it difficult to find new ones due to the increasingly high skill requirements in the digital economy.
"The new jobs that are emerging are mostly specialist positions," Hillary said. "But those losing their jobs are mostly workers with limited skills, facing significant barriers to retraining to get back into the market."
NFER predicts that between 1 and 3 million Britons could fall into this risk group if they do not receive appropriate training.
In short, the rise of AI is not just a technological revolution, but also a pivotal turning point in the UK's labor market. Automation could eliminate millions of low-skilled jobs, but it also opens up demand for highly skilled personnel.
The biggest challenge in the next decade will not be AI stealing jobs, but rather helping workers adapt, retrain, and find new positions in an economy increasingly reliant on technology and specialized skills.
