Alaves vs Real Madrid: pressure to react, prediction 1-2

Real Madrid travel to Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz) under immense pressure: a 0-2 defeat to Celta Vigo in La Liga, followed by a 1-2 loss to Manchester City in the Champions League. Having won only two of their last eight matches in all competitions and trailing Barcelona by four points, Xabi Alonso's team needs an immediate response against Alaves – a team maintaining a steady rhythm at home.

Form and context

Alaves entered the match confident after beating Real Sociedad 1-0 in La Liga and overcoming Portugalete in the Copa del Rey. At home this season, they have earned 14 points from 8 matches, losing only twice – a foundation that has helped them maintain 11th place.

Conversely, Real Madrid needs to halt their slump. A series of disappointing results has left them trailing in the title race. In this context, an away win is not only important for points, but also a morale boost to stabilize the season.

Head-to-head statistics

History favors Real Madrid: they have won seven consecutive matches recently and haven't lost at Mendizorrotza since October 2018. However, given Alaves' current form and home advantage, past results no longer guarantee an easy victory for the visitors.

Force

Alaves will be without Nikola Maras (knee injury) and Facundo Garces (suspended). Jon Guridi's participation is uncertain. Coach Eduardo Coudet is likely to keep the same lineup that beat Real Sociedad.

Real Madrid are facing a personnel crisis: Dani Carvajal, Ferland Mendy, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, Endrick, Fran Garcia, and Alvaro Carreras are all absent. Kylian Mbappe, Eduardo Camavinga, David Alaba, and Dean Huijsen need further assessment, with Mbappe likely to remain sidelined, forcing Alonso to heavily rotate both defense and attack.

Tactics and hotspots

Real Madrid are likely to operate in a 4-3-1-2 formation, prioritizing ball control and exploiting the two flanks given the lack of true full-backs. Valverde and Raul Asencio may push forward to create dominance on the wings – in the half-space – but this leaves gaps behind for the opponent's transitional plays.

Alaves are expected to maintain a low, tight 4-1-4-1 formation, focusing on shutting down the midfield, forcing Real Madrid to advance the ball through the wing-midfield triangles before penetrating. The key battle will be between Aurelien Tchouameni and Ander Guevara: whoever wins in the midfield will determine the pace, rhythm, and possession of the game.

Lucas Boye – with 3 goals this season – plays the role of the first line of attack and pressing, promising to exploit the spaces behind Valverde/Asencio when Real lose possession. Conversely, Jude Bellingham remains the creative center of Real Madrid; his runs into the penalty area and his link-up play with Vinicius Junior are key to making a difference in a tightly-packed game.

Predicted lineup

Alives: Severa; Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Guevara; Calebe, Ibanez, Denis Suarez, Rebbach; Lucas Boye

Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Huijsen, Raul Asencio; Guler, Tchouameni, Ceballos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior

Selective statistics

• Alaves have earned 14 points from 8 home games this season, losing only 2 times.
• Real Madrid have won only 2 of their last 8 matches in all competitions.
• The gap with Barcelona is currently 4 points.
• Real have won the last 7 encounters and have not lost at Mendizorrotza since October 2018.

Assessment

Alaves have the home advantage and better organization, but Real Madrid will have to react to avoid a widening crisis. In a match expected to be tight, character and individual quality could help the visitors prevail in crucial moments.

Predicted score:Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid