Arsenal 3-1 Bayern in Champions League, Liverpool have a 3% chance.
Arsenal beat Bayern 3-1 to solidify their position as the top contender; Chelsea increased their direct qualification chances for the round of 16 to 58%; Liverpool lost to PSV, leaving them with only a 3% chance of winning the title; Mbappe scored 4 goals, boosting Real Madrid's direct qualification chances to 85%.
Arsenal beat Bayern Munich 3-1 at the Emirates to become the top contender for the UEFA Champions League title in the 2025-26 season, while Liverpool collapsed 1-4 against PSV Eindhoven and now have only a 3% chance of winning the title according to Opta. In Greece, Kylian Mbappe scored four goals against Olympiacos, increasing Real Madrid's chances of directly reaching the last 16 from 60% to 85% according to The Athletic's models (based on Opta data).
Arsenal 3-1 Bayern: the impact of set pieces and the substitutes.
The top-of-the-table match lived up to expectations in terms of quality. Arsenal opened the scoring with their familiar weapon: their 10th goal from a corner this season, as Jurrien Timber rose high to head home a cross from Bukayo Saka. Bayern responded with a combination that could be considered for the best goal of the season: a series of 26 passes, Joshua Kimmich crossing the ball to Michael Olise before it was crossed for 17-year-old Lennart Karl to finish.
After the break, Arsenal regained control. Mikel Arteta's substitutions decided the game: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli came on and scored the second and third goals respectively. The win didn't significantly alter their chances of progressing (both Arsenal and Bayern are rated close to 100% by Opta), but it sent a clear message about Arsenal's position in the race to the May playoffs.
English football: joys and shocks
Chelsea won 3-0 against Barcelona, with young talent Estevao shining, boosting the Blues' chances of qualifying directly for the last 16 to 58% according to Opta. Conversely, the biggest shock came at Anfield when Arne Slot's Liverpool lost 1-4 to PSV Eindhoven. A leaky defense has reduced a pre-tournament title contender (20%) to a mere 3% chance of lifting the trophy.
Tottenham Hotspur suffered a 3-5 defeat against Paris Saint-Germain in a match where Vitinha scored his first ever hat-trick. Newcastle United also lost 1-2 to Marseille. According to Opta, Tottenham's chances of finishing in the top 8 (direct qualification) are 14% and Newcastle's are 17%; a play-off spot is still within reach.
Mbappe explodes, Real Madrid accelerates.
In Greece, Mbappe scored all four goals to help Real Madrid beat Olympiacos 4-3. With an expected goals (xG) metric of just 1, the French striker's clinical finishing significantly increased Real Madrid's chances of qualifying for the round of 16 from 60% to 85%.
Tactical features and quantitative highlights
- Arsenal maintain their strength in set pieces: their 10th goal from a corner this season demonstrates the effectiveness of their set-piece organization and their ability to capitalize on the quality of Bukayo Saka's crosses.
- Bayern's equalizer came from a run of 26 passes, reflecting their ability to control and organize their play without the ball, creating space for the final cross.
- Arsenal's substitutes made a difference: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli came on and directly decided the score in the second half.
- Vitinha scored his first ever hat-trick in PSG's 5-3 victory over Tottenham, showcasing his explosive potential in a counter-attacking style of play.
Impact on the league phase
With only three rounds remaining in the league phase, the picture for the top eight and play-off spots is becoming clearer. The Athletic (using Opta data) has updated the following:
- Chelsea: 58% chance of qualifying directly for the last 16.
- Liverpool: 3% chance of winning the title (down from 20% before the season).
- Tottenham Hotspur: 14% chance of finishing in the top 8 directly.
- Newcastle United: 17% chance of finishing in the top 8 and securing direct qualification.
- Real Madrid: increased their chances of qualifying directly for the round of 16 from 60% to 85%.
- Borussia Dortmund: beat Villarreal 4-0 with an xG of 4.03, currently have a 52% chance of qualifying directly.
- Juventus: reduced risk of early elimination to 14% after winning against Bodo/Glimt.
- Ajax: lost 0-2 to Jose Mourinho's Benfica, virtually certain of elimination with no points.
In the contrasting picture of the Premier League representatives, Arsenal stands out with its stable playing structure, effective set-piece performance, and squad depth. As the top eight race becomes increasingly defined, any mistakes – as Liverpool experienced against PSV – will be costly in the fierce competition of the new season.
