Europe worries Ukraine will 'shut off' Russian gas supplies.

Earlier, Alexey Chernyshov, head of Ukraine's Naftogaz energy corporation, stated that Ukraine would not renew its agreement to transport Russian gas to Europe when it expires at the end of 2024. According to Chernyshov, transport will stop as soon as the contract is completed.

"Ukraine does not want to transport Russian gas to Europe from 2025. Because the European gas market is closely linked between countries, the fuel could become expensive for German consumers," Ria Novosti reported, citing the Focus publication.

According to Professor Svetlana Ionnikova of the Technical University of Munich (Germany), such a move by Ukraine would not only lead to higher energy prices, but also force a shift in industrial production. The analyst stated that 5 to 10% of Germany's industrial production capacity could be permanently moved abroad.

Malte Küper, an energy policy expert at the German Institute for Economic Research, added that rising prices in one European country would lead to higher costs in other parts of the EU.

"If Austria experiences a gas shortage, then gas in Germany will also become more expensive," expert Küper said.

Expert Küper believes it is unlikely that Ukraine will shut off the gas supply for another year. Küper argues that, in the process of potentially joining the EU, Ukraine has an interest in maintaining continuous shipments from Russia to Europe. Kyiv does not want to disappoint its Western partners. However, it remains unclear what a gas deal with Ukraine would entail.

According to Ria Novosti, in June 2023, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko stated that the chances of reaching an agreement with Russia on extending the gas transit agreement were very slim.

At the end of 2019, Russia and Ukraine signed a five-year gas transit contract. Under the agreement, Gazprom guaranteed to pump 65 billion cubic meters of gas in the first year, and 40 billion cubic meters in the following four years.