The global food price index rose 2.4% in March 2026 due to the Middle East conflict.
Global food prices averaged 128.5 points in March 2026, marking the second consecutive month of increases under pressure from rising energy costs and geopolitical volatility.
The global food price index for March 2026 averaged 128.5 points, a 2.4% increase compared to February 2026 and a 1% increase compared to the same period in 2025. According to the latest report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), this increase is mainly due to the impact of escalating energy prices and the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East.
Significant fluctuations in the grain and sugar commodity groups.
The global grain price index recorded a 1.5% increase compared to the previous month. Notably, wheat prices surged by 4.3% due to drought conditions in the United States and a decrease in planted area in Australia because of rising fertilizer costs. Conversely, the global rice price index fell by 3% due to weak import demand and the depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar.
The sugar sector recorded the strongest growth at 7.2% in March 2026. The main reason identified was that Brazil, the leading sugar exporter, shifted a large portion of its sugarcane production to ethanol production to cope with rising crude oil prices. This overshadowed favorable supply prospects from India and Thailand.
Vegetable oils and fresh produce are under pressure from rising crude oil prices.
The vegetable oil price index in March 2026 increased by 5.1% compared to February 2026, reaching a 13.2% increase year-on-year. The surge in crude oil prices has boosted demand for vegetable oils for biofuels, driving up prices of palm, soybean, and sunflower oils.
| Product group | Change compared to February 2026 (%) |
|---|---|
| Overall index | +2.4% |
| Cereal | +1.5% |
| Road | +7.2% |
| Vegetable oil | +5.1% |
| Meat | +1.0% |
| Milk | +1.2% |
The meat market rose slightly by 1%, with pork prices in the European Union and beef prices in Brazil increasing due to export supply constraints. Conversely, lamb and poultry prices fell due to shipping barriers in the Near East disrupting market access.
Forecast of food supply prospects in 2026
Máximo Torero, chief economist of the FAO, noted that while global grain supplies remain abundant, if the Middle East conflict lasts longer than 40 days, farmers will face challenges regarding input costs. Reducing fertilizer use or switching crops will directly impact yields and reshape the commodity price map in the coming period.
The FAO forecasts global wheat production in 2026 at 820 million tonnes, down 1.7% from the previous year. However, world rice production is expected to reach a record 563.3 million tonnes thanks to growth from markets such as Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. Overall, the ratio of grain stocks to global consumption is at 32.2%, indicating that supply remains stable.
