Experts predict that 'warm sunshine' will return to the real estate market in 2023

This is the general opinion of industry experts in the Seminar: "Bright spots in mechanisms and policies forreal estate marketVietnam 2023”, was recently held in Ho Chi Minh City.

Sharing at the discussion, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Group, said that regarding real estate issues, the Government has taken decisive and strong action. This is revealing certain bright spots, but whether it can be implemented or not still needs more time.

Experts give optimistic forecasts that real estate will recover soon in 2023. Photo: Viet Dung

According to Mr. Thien, to fundamentally handle the problems of the real estate market, there are other major measures that need to be taken. Currently, the structure of the economic investment is skewed towards real estate. The reason is that the orientation to encourage investment and guide capital flows is wrong. To create an environment to attract capital, policies must be changed, instead of encouraging speculation as is currently causing imbalance.

“For a long time in the real estate market, incentives have been directed towards the high-end segment. If they cannot be sold but are only speculated upon, when there is a bottleneck, it will not only cause waste to the economy but also pose risks to the economy, that is, bad debt,” said Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, also said that the phrases “support” and “rescue” of real estate have never been mentioned as much as they are now. This shows that the real estate market is facing many unusual factors. However, recently, the impacts of the real estate market have been viewed positively. This is a good thing.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, the policy mechanism related to the real estate market includes two groups of short-term and medium- and long-term policies, both of which are being resolved by the Government.

In the short term, the Government is determined to focus on removing legal barriers, helping hundreds of projects to be cleared, attracting cash flow, and importantly, regaining confidence in the market.

Next on the capital issue, the hottest thing right now is bonds.business. If real estate companies do not buy back, the bond debt will be very large. Many large companies are having a hard time negotiating and bargaining... to resolve maturing bonds, typically Novaland Group in recent days.

“The decree amending Decree 65 on corporate bonds is also being urgently revised, although it was only issued in September 2022, which will create conditions to remove difficulties for businesses in accordance with the practical situation,” Mr. Luc said.

The second group is about credit capital related to the real estate market, which the Government also focuses on resolving, such as debt deferral, tax deferral, land rent deferral, etc.

Overview of the seminar.

With a series of legal bottlenecks,credit policybe urgently removed and applied in the coming time, Dr. Can Van Luc commented that from the end of the third quarter of 2023 onwards, the real estate market will "warm up" and flourish. Because at this time, businesses have stabilized their psychology, policies affecting the market will also be clearer, plus the support package is being implemented.

“The VND110,000 billion support package proposed by the Ministry of Construction is essentially similar to the VND30,000 billion package previously implemented. However, this time there must be a complete and systematic project to develop social housing. Lessons learned from the previous support package,” said Dr. Can Van Luc.

Giving a forecast about the market in the coming time, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice President of Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that in the first quarter of 2023, many documents will be issued. In the second quarter, there will be many changes in handling some projects facing difficulties.

“At present, businesses are having to restructure and realign their products to make them easier to sell in the market. Even the entire system from the Government to the agencies and departments has changed… so the real estate market will be warmer by the end of the second quarter of 2023,” Mr. Dinh shared.

From the perspective of an economic expert, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien said that in a short time, the Prime Minister has issued 4 directives to remove difficulties from the banking sector, interest rate packages, finance, 110,000 billion VND package... This move shows that the Government is very determined to remove difficulties for the economy in general and will create real momentum for real estate.

“In this general atmosphere, the real estate market will improve but slowly. It is forecasted that the market will soon recover in the third quarter of 2023,” Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien predicted./.