Experts predict that the real estate market will experience a "warm and sunny" season in 2023.

This was the general consensus of industry experts at the seminar: "The bright spot in the mechanisms and policies for..."real estate market"Vietnam 2023", was recently held in Ho Chi Minh City.

Speaking at the seminar, Associate Professor Tran Dinh Thien, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Group, said that regarding real estate issues, the Government has taken decisive and strong action. This is revealing certain positive signs, but whether it can be implemented remains to be seen.

Experts are optimistically predicting a real estate recovery in 2023. Photo: Viet Dung

According to Mr. Thien, to fundamentally address the problems of the real estate market, there are other major measures that need to be taken. Currently, the economic structure is heavily skewed towards real estate investment. This is due to misguided investment incentives and capital flow management. To create an environment that attracts capital, policies must be reformed, instead of encouraging speculation as is currently the case, which causes imbalances.

"For a long time, incentives in the real estate market have been focused on the high-end segment. If sales don't improve and only speculation occurs, when a bottleneck arises, it not only wastes resources for the economy but also creates risks, namely bad debts," said Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, also stated that the terms "support" and "rescue" for the real estate market have never been mentioned as frequently as they are now. This indicates that the real estate market is experiencing many unusual factors. However, recently, the impacts of the real estate market have been viewed in a positive light. This is encouraging.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, the policy mechanisms related to the real estate market, comprising both short-term and medium-to-long-term policies, are currently being addressed by the government.

In the short term, the government is aggressively focusing on removing legal barriers, helping to unlock hundreds of projects, attracting investment, and importantly, restoring confidence in the market.

Next, regarding the issue of capital, the hottest topic right now is bonds.businessesIf real estate companies don't buy back their bonds, the bond debt will be enormous. Many large companies are struggling to negotiate and settle maturing bonds, a prime example being Novaland Group in recent days.

"The decree amending Decree 65 on corporate bonds is also being urgently revised, even though it was only issued in September 2022. This will create conditions to remove difficulties for businesses in accordance with the current situation," Mr. Luc said.

The second group concerns credit capital related to the real estate market, which the Government is also focusing on resolving, such as debt restructuring and deferral, continued tax deferral and deferral, and land lease fee deferral.

A panoramic view of the seminar.

With numerous legal bottlenecks,credit policyWith urgent measures being taken to remove obstacles and implement them in the near future, Dr. Can Van Luc predicts that from around the end of the third quarter of 2023 onwards, the real estate market will "warm up" and flourish. This is because businesses will have stabilized their psychology by then, policies affecting the market will be clearer, and support packages will be implemented.

“The 110 trillion VND support package proposed by the Ministry of Construction is essentially the same as the 30 trillion VND package implemented previously. However, this time, there must be a complete and well-structured plan for developing social housing. We need to learn from the experience of the previous support package,” said Dr. Can Van Luc.

Forecasting the market in the coming period, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that many regulations will be issued in the first quarter of 2023. In the second quarter, there will be many changes in handling some projects facing obstacles and difficulties.

“Currently, businesses are having to restructure and adjust their products to make them easier to sell in the market. Even the entire system, from the government to various agencies, is undergoing changes… so the real estate market will warm up towards the end of the second quarter of 2023,” Mr. Dinh shared.

From the perspective of an economic expert, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien believes that, in a short period of time, the Prime Minister has issued four directives to address issues in the banking sector, interest rate packages, finance, and the 110,000 billion VND package… This move shows that the Government is very determined to remove difficulties for the economy in general and will create real momentum for the real estate market.

"In this general atmosphere, the real estate market will see some improvement, but slowly. The market is predicted to recover soon, in the third quarter of 2023," Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien predicted.