The Ballon d'Or race reverses course: Messi surges 966%, Mbappe closes in on Harry Kane.
The 2026 World Cup is completely reshaping the landscape for the Ballon d'Or. While Lionel Messi is making a spectacular breakthrough at the age of 39, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe are creating a dramatic two-horse race.
The World Cup has long been considered the "gold standard" for all individual awards, and the Ballon d'Or is no exception. History proves that brilliant performances at club level can quickly be overshadowed by the heat of the biggest football event on the planet. The latest data shows a dramatic reversal, where names that were thought to be out of the running are now becoming top contenders thanks to their performance at the 2026 World Cup.
The miraculous resurgence of Lionel Messi
The most surprising case on the list of candidates is Lionel Messi. Before the World Cup began, the Argentine superstar was considered a mere "filler" candidate with a meager 0.97% chance of winning. However, after his brilliant performances, that number skyrocketed to 10.34%.
This 966% growth has propelled Messi from obscurity straight into the top 5 of the most promising contenders for the world's most prestigious individual award in football. At 39, El Pulga has once again proven his influence on the world stage. If Argentina continues to advance further, the dream of a ninth Ballon d'Or could very well become a reality, a scenario that few would have believed possible just a month ago.
The ultimate showdown between Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe
Despite Messi's strong surge, Harry Kane remains firmly in first place. The England captain has solidified his lead, increasing his chances of winning from 20.11% to 22.27%. Kane's consistency is the biggest obstacle for anyone aiming for the title.
However, the pressure from behind is growing stronger than ever as Kylian Mbappe begins his spectacular surge. After a season filled with doubt at Real Madrid, Mbappe has shaken off all that to explode at the World Cup. His rating has skyrocketed from 4.36% to 19.30%, a 343% increase.
With 7 goals scored in the tournament, Mbappe is now less than 3% behind Kane. Together, the duo have over 41% of the chance to win the Ballon d'Or, making this year's race a nail-biting battle between two of the world's best strikers.
Leaps and slides
Not only veteran stars, but the younger generation is also using the World Cup to change the landscape. Erling Haaland, after leading Norway to the quarter-finals, increased his win rate from 1.92% to 6.59%. Meanwhile, Jude Bellingham also had an impressive comeback with a 566% increase, entering the top 10 contenders after a period of underwhelming performances at club level.
Conversely, the World Cup also witnessed disappointing declines for many stars. Declan Rice was the most severely affected, with his win rate plummeting from 10.89% to just 3.45%, a drop of 68%. Other names like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and the PSG stars are also gradually losing their advantage as they fail to maintain peak performance in the most demanding tournament on the planet.
As you can see, in a World Cup year, all pre-tournament predictions can be overturned. Only truly talented players who shine at the right moment on the world's biggest stage have a chance of winning the Ballon d'Or.
