2024 Democratic National Convention: New Expectations, Old Concerns

Full of energy

Democratic Party members flocked to Chicago for the party's national convention (August 19-22) filled with unexpected emotions: boundless joy. Traditionally, the convention's purpose is to formally nominate the party's presidential candidate. But this year, Kamala Harris secured the nomination earlier this month through an online vote, making the nomination largely a formality. With this nomination, she became the first African-American woman to accept the presidential nomination of a major party in American history. "This is a remarkable turning point," remarked Howard Dean, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and former governor of Vermont. "The Democratic Party has been revived." Or, as Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, assessed: "The Democratic Party is back in the game."

Indeed, within a month, the Democratic Party has shifted from a precarious and anxious position to one of confidence and initiative. Since incumbent President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid, passing the torch to his vice president, the Democratic Party seems to have reorganized its forces, with Kamala Harris uniting most of the party and restoring confidence among young and Black voters. While the race remains incredibly close, analysts have recently adjusted their outlooks in three swing states that previously tended to drift away from the Democratic Party, but now offer the party a chance to win.

For her part, Kamala Harris, initially seen as a "firefighting" candidate that worried many Democratic leaders, did a good job and created a positive effect on the race. This was demonstrated through two specific tactics. First, she proactively created a new momentum and energy for the campaign, thereby generating excitement among voters, especially neutral voters in swing states, turning potential supporters into actual voters. The second tactic was to launch a campaign to attract support from Republicans who disliked Trump, called "Republicans for Harris," to gain an advantage in the race.

Since replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee in mid-July 2024, Harris has seen a surge of enthusiastic support – evident in polls, fundraising, and massive crowds at rallies across the United States. Fundraising has been at a record pace. The Democratic National Committee and other joint fundraising committees raised a record $310 million in July, far exceeding the amount raised by Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, in the same month. Celebrities, artists, and fashion designers have all voiced their support, both materially and morally, for Harris's campaign. Democratic officials say the inspiration from Harris's campaign is "spreading" to the ballots and translating into support on the ground. “You can see the huge crowds at the rallies,” said Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. “But what you can’t see in those pictures is that thousands of people attending those rallies are signing up to volunteer and then going door-to-door to potential swing voters who may not know much about Vice President Harris or Governor Walz.” According to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 48% of American adults have a very or fairly favorable view of Harris. That’s up from 39% earlier this summer.

Does the "honeymoon" last a long time?

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have "redrawn the electoral map" after replacing President Biden in the race. According to polls, Harris is leading or tied with Donald Trump in six of the seven swing states. However, this correlation doesn't yet indicate the final outcome, as the Democratic Party still faces numerous challenges.

First, regarding policy. In this election, perhaps the issue of greatest concern to voters and one that could impact the outcome is the health of the US economy and policies to combat inflation. Opinion polls show that approximately 80 to 85% of adults surveyed consider these two issues very important in the presidential election, ranking them first among the 11 issues raised. Although both presidential candidates have presented outlines of economic policy, Trump currently appears to have a clear advantage over Harris in terms of credibility regarding addressing the weaknesses of the US economy and reducing inflation. Support for Trump on these two issues has remained virtually unchanged compared to opinion polls when Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate. Harris recently unveiled an economic plan on August 16th, calling for tax cuts for families and broader efforts to limit drug prices. This is her most detailed vision for the United States to date. However, as a presidential candidate, she had yet to present a specific policy agenda or give in-depth interviews to the media as of August 17th.

On foreign policy, Harris will also face protests against Israel's actions in Gaza, a politically divisive issue within the Democratic Party. While she has been more forceful in her calls for a ceasefire and condemnation of civilian casualties than President Biden, she has also not opposed the administration's unwavering support for Israel – a stance that risks alienating the party's progressive wing. Therefore, at the Democratic National Convention, perhaps the most emphasized aspect will be demonstrating unity around the Harris-Walz ticket.

Furthermore, maintaining the enthusiasm of American voters for the Harris-Walz ticket is also a challenge and a difficult problem for the Democratic Party. Democratic strategists are capitalizing on the current voter euphoria for the campaign. However, the question is how long this euphoria will last. Or, as Republican candidate Donald Trump warned, Harris's "honeymoon" will soon end. The Harris-Walz ticket is expected to clarify its agenda during the Democratic National Convention. If its policies are not well-presented, the Democratic campaign will certainly lose crucial momentum.

Polls indicate that American voters are seeking change. Therefore, the Democratic Party's campaign strategy will likely focus not only on unity but also on creating changes that align with voter expectations, thereby increasing their chances of winning the November election.