Assessing the chances of winning for MU vs Lyon: The advantage goes to the Red Devils.

MU vs Lyon: Who has the advantage in the second leg?

Following a dramatic 2-2 draw in France, both Manchester United and Lyon still have a chance to advance to the Europa League semi-finals. However, given their contrasting form, the balance of victory is slightly tilted towards the French team.

Manchester United entered this match under immense pressure. After their 1-4 defeat against Newcastle, they had reached their 14th loss in the Premier League this season – a dismal record in the Premier League era. Sitting 14th with only 38 points after 32 rounds, they have virtually no chance of qualifying for European competition unless they win the Europa League.

In terms of personnel, MU suffered heavy losses. Joshua Zirkzee – who scored in the first leg – is suffering from a hamstring injury, while De Ligt, Diallo, Heaven, Martinez, Evans, and Collyer are all absent. Hojlund is the only available center forward, supported by Bruno Fernandes and Garnacho. Onana is likely to return to the starting lineup, while Casemiro, Ugarte, and Mount compete for a place in midfield.

Conversely, Lyon are in excellent form. They just beat Auxerre 3-1 in Ligue 1, continuing their pursuit of a top 3 finish and a Champions League spot. Since the beginning of March, Lyon have won 7 out of 9 matches, scoring 24 goals and remaining unbeaten in 12 consecutive away games in the Europa League.

In terms of squad, Lyon will be without Nuamah and Fofana due to injury. However, they still possess quality attacking players such as Rayan Cherki, Thiago Almada, Mikautadze, and Lacazette. Notably, Cherki is in excellent form with 11 appearances in European competitions this season.

History is on MU's side as they are unbeaten in all five previous encounters with Lyon (two wins, three draws). However, statistics cannot mask the fact that the Red Devils are in a complete crisis – from their playing style and fitness to their morale. Meanwhile, Lyon are playing effective, calculated football, and their away form is a major plus.

Assess the chances of winning.

• MU:Despite having home advantage and a favorable head-to-head record, their poor form and depleted squad put them at significant risk. Only if Fernandes and Hojlund perform brilliantly can MU turn the situation around.
• Lyon:Lyon's good form, stable squad, and Cherki's excellent form give them a clear chance of winning if they can exploit Manchester United's defensive weaknesses. A draw with goals could also be enough to see them through if they can force Manchester United into extra time.

Forecast:
MU 2-2 Lyon (Lyon won after extra time or penalties)