Assessing the possibility of MU vs Lyon winning: Advantage for the Red Devils

MU vs Lyon: Who has the advantage in the second leg?

After a dramatic 2-2 draw in France, both MU and Lyon still have the chance to advance to the Europa League semi-finals. However, in the context of contrasting performances, the balance of victory is slightly tilted towards the French team.

MU entered this match under heavy pressure. After a 1-4 defeat to Newcastle, they recorded their 14th defeat in the Premier League this season - a sad record in the Premier League era. Standing 14th with only 38 points after 32 rounds, they almost have no chance of qualifying for European Cup if they do not win the Europa League.

In terms of squad, MU suffered heavy losses. Joshua Zirkzee - who scored in the first leg - has a hamstring injury, while De Ligt, Diallo, Heaven, Martinez, Evans and Collyer are all absent. Hojlund is the only available striker, supported by Bruno Fernandes and Garnacho. Onana is likely to return to the starting line-up, while Casemiro, Ugarte and Mount compete for the midfield position.

Lyon, on the other hand, are in great form. They just beat Auxerre 3-1 in Ligue 1, continuing to chase the top 3 to win a ticket to the Champions League. Since the beginning of March, Lyon have won 7/9 matches, scored 24 goals and are unbeaten in 12 consecutive away matches in the Europa League.

In terms of squad, Lyon will be without Nuamah and Fofana due to injury. However, they still have quality attacking players such as Rayan Cherki, Thiago Almada, Mikautadze and Lacazette. In particular, Cherki is in good form with 11 appearances in European Cup this season.

History is on United’s side as they are unbeaten in all five encounters with Lyon (W2 D3). However, statistics cannot hide the fact that the Red Devils are in a complete crisis – from playing style, physical strength to spirit. Meanwhile, Lyon are playing effective, calculating football and their away form is a big plus.

Evaluate the probability of winning

• MU:Despite having home advantage and a history of confrontation in their favour, their poor form and depleted squad put them at great risk. Only when Fernandes and Hojlund play explosively can MU turn the situation around.
• Lyon:Good form, a stable squad, and Cherki's rise give Lyon a clearer chance of winning if they can take advantage of MU's defensive weaknesses. A draw with a goal could also be enough to send them through if they can drag MU into extra time.

Forecast:
MU 2-2 Lyon (Lyon wins after extra time or penalties)