Lyon vs MU win probability assessment: Red Devils out of sync
Lyon vs MU: The Red Devils lose form, the home team thrives. The confrontation promises to be balanced, but who will have the advantage after the first leg?
With a weakened force, MU is at a disadvantage.
Manchester United travel to France with a string of injuries that have further rattled an already fragile squad. Lisandro Martinez, Amad Diallo, Ayden Heaven and Jonny Evans remain absent. Matthijs de Ligt and Kobbie Mainoo, meanwhile, require further testing, although Mainoo has returned to training. Luke Shaw is fit after four months out, but his chances of starting are up in the air.
The Red Devils’ form has also made it difficult for fans to put their full faith in them. After losing to Nottingham Forest, they continued to show a lackluster performance when they were held to a goalless draw by Man City in the Manchester derby. Although they are still unbeaten in the Europa League this season, it is clear that MU is lacking a real boost to regain the image of a big team.
Lyon are on the rise, but lack experience
On the other side of the front line, Lyon lost key player Ernest Nuamah due to an ACL injury, but they still have many potential names such as Rayan Cherki - who has scored 9 goals and had 18 assists this season, including 8 assists in the Europa League. The French team has won 7/10 of the most recent matches, showing impressive form despite having to play under the direction of assistant Jorge Maciel while coach Paulo Fonseca was suspended.
However, Lyon have never beaten Manchester United in their previous four meetings. Both home games ended in draws as they failed to maintain their lead. In addition, Lyon have often been outclassed by English representatives in European Cup history.
Gameplay and Strategy: Putting It on the Scale
Tactically, Lyon are making good use of their attacking creativity, especially Cherki and Almada – players who are capable of breaking through and making a difference. They also have the experienced Lacazette ready to start or be a strategic card. The ability to play quick counter-attacks, exploiting the space behind the MU defense will be a great strength.
Meanwhile, MU is still struggling with how to deploy the ball. The lack of reliable names in the midfield makes them depend heavily on the inspiration of Bruno Fernandes - who just scored a hat-trick in the round of 16. The attack with Garnacho, Zirkzee or Hojlund still lacks obvious efficiency.
Winning Probability: Which Team Do You Think Will Win?
In theory, MU has more experience in the European arena. They are the only team that has not lost a match in the Europa League this season and usually play well in the first leg of the knockout round. But with a depleted force, unstable form and psychological pressure, the "Red Devils" can completely face difficulties in France.
Lyon, on the other hand, have home advantage, high spirits and an effective attacking style. Despite the absence of Nuamah, the French team still showed that they can explode with Cherki and Almada.
Prediction: A toss-up result
The match is likely to be a balanced affair. MU will try to control the game, while Lyon will play ambush and take advantage of counter-attack opportunities. Both teams have their own strengths, but also have many weaknesses that can be exploited.
