The US's Yellow Dome missile defense project faces the risk of cost overruns reaching $1.2 trillion.

The Golden Dome missile defense system, championed by U.S. President Donald Trump, faces the risk of becoming one of the most expensive defense programs in history. According to a report from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a system with a similar structure to Golden Dome could cost up to $1.2 trillion to develop and operate over 20 years.

A large gap between commitments and actual forecasts.

The $1.2 trillion budget proposed by the CBO is nearly seven times higher than the $175 billion President Trump announced in his executive order in May 2025. Although the US government aims to complete this shield before the end of its term in 2029, experts believe this ambition is far more expensive and complex than initially anticipated.

The most expensive part of the program is the space-based interceptor layer, accounting for approximately 70% of procurement costs and 60% of the total system budget. This defense model comprises four interceptor layers: one space layer, two large-scale ground-based layers, and one regional defense layer, connected by a network of sensors and a synchronized combat coordination center.

Risks to operational effectiveness and the arms race.

Although designed to counter ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons, the CBO warns that the system could still be overwhelmed by a large-scale attack. The report asserts that the Yellow Dome is not an "impenetrable shield," meaning the U.S. is unlikely to achieve absolute security despite spending over $1 trillion.

Furthermore, deploying the Yellow Dome could incentivize adversaries to expand their nuclear arsenals or develop technologies capable of penetrating the shield. Notably, the $1.2 trillion figure does not include the cost of laser weapons, next-generation early warning satellites, or technology to destroy missiles before launch.

Responses from military officials and lessons from the past.

General Michael Guetlein, who manages the Golden Dome program, has refuted external estimates. He argues that these enormous figures are based on the cost of legacy systems and do not accurately reflect the optimal procurement model the Pentagon is employing. However, he also acknowledged that costs could increase significantly in some technically complex scenarios.

Military analysts fear that the Golden Dome is following in the footsteps of other US weapons projects that have suffered serious cost overruns:

• F-35 fighter jet:Lifecycle costs are now projected to exceed $2 trillion, significantly higher than initially planned.
• B-2 bomber:The price per unit skyrocketed to over $2 billion, leading to a reduction in production from 132 to just 21 units.
• Destroyer Zumwalt:The US Navy has only completed 3 ships instead of the planned 32 due to the cost of each ship reaching $7-9 billion.

These precedents have led experts to doubt the sustainability of the Golden Dome project if the budget continues to balloon beyond control.