Fuel price forecast for this afternoon, May 15, 2025

Forecasts for the fuel price adjustment session on the afternoon of May 15th indicate that prices of various commodities may fluctuate in opposite directions. According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline is likely to increase by approximately 225 VND/liter, reaching 18,995 VND/liter. RON 95-III gasoline is also predicted to increase by 374 VND/liter, reaching approximately 19,544 VND/liter.

Meanwhile, fuel oil prices may decrease slightly by about 326 VND/kg, to 15,204 VND/kg. Diesel fuel is forecast to increase slightly by 1% to 16,966 VND/liter, while kerosene will remain almost unchanged, increasing by only 0.2%, reaching 16,977 VND/liter.

According to VPI's forecasting model, during this price stabilization period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance will most likely continue to neither allocate funds to nor utilize the Price Stabilization Fund.

Several domestic petroleum businesses have also made similar predictions, suggesting that prices will increase in line with global market trends. It is expected that RON 95 gasoline could increase by approximately 380 VND/liter, E5 RON 92 gasoline by approximately 370 VND/liter, and diesel by approximately 350 VND/liter.

On the international market, recent fluctuations in oil prices have been largely driven by expectations of a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran.

According to economist Yuki Takashima from Nomura Securities, if the US eases sanctions on Iran, global crude oil supply could increase, causing a supply-demand imbalance.

Saudi Arabia has also expressed support for the negotiations between the US and Iran, hoping for a positive outcome. Meanwhile, the United States continues to exert pressure by repeatedly announcing new sanctions, including measures targeting Iran's oil transportation network to China.

On the supply side, OPEC+ has increased the amount of oil pumped into the market, while simultaneously cutting its forecast for supply growth from the US and non-OPEC countries. This signals that OPEC+ is still seeking to adjust the market balance amid a lack of clear demand recovery.

Currently, domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices are still being applied according to the adjustments made at 3 PM on May 8th.

At that time, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased to 18,777 VND/liter, and RON 95-III gasoline decreased to 19,179 VND/liter. Diesel fuel was also adjusted down to 16,809 VND/liter, kerosene to 16,941 VND/liter, and mazut decreased to 15,533 VND/kg.