Gasoline price forecast this afternoon May 15, 2025

It is forecasted that in the gasoline price management session on the afternoon of May 15, prices of commodities may fluctuate in opposite directions. According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analyst of VPI, the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline is likely to increase by about 225 VND/liter, to 18,995 VND/liter. RON 95-III gasoline is also forecast to increase by 374 VND/liter, reaching about 19,544 VND/liter.

Meanwhile, fuel oil prices may slightly decrease by about VND326/kg to VND15,204/kg. Diesel is forecast to increase slightly by 1% to VND16,966/liter, while kerosene is almost unchanged, increasing only 0.2% to VND16,977/liter.

According to VPI's forecast model, in this operating period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance will likely continue not to set aside or use the Price Stabilization Fund.

Some domestic petroleum enterprises also made similar predictions, saying that prices would increase following the trend of the world market. It is expected that the price of RON 95 gasoline may increase by about 380 VND/liter, E5 RON 92 gasoline by about 370 VND/liter and diesel by about 350 VND/liter.

In the international market, recent oil price movements have been largely driven by expectations of a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran.

According to economist Yuki Takashima from Nomura Securities, if the US eases sanctions on Iran, global crude oil supply could increase, causing an imbalance in supply and demand.

Saudi Arabia has also expressed support for the talks between the US and Iran, hoping for a positive outcome. Meanwhile, the US has maintained pressure by continuously announcing new sanctions, including measures targeting Iran's oil transport network to China.

On the supply side, OPEC+ increased the amount of oil pumped into the market, although at the same time, it cut its forecast for supply growth from the US and other countries outside the bloc, a signal that OPEC+ is still trying to adjust the market balance in the context of a clear demand recovery.

Currently, domestic retail gasoline prices are still being applied according to the adjustment from 3:00 p.m. on May 8.

At that time, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased to 18,777 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline decreased to 19,179 VND/liter. Diesel oil was also adjusted down to 16,809 VND/liter, kerosene to 16,941 VND/liter, and mazut oil decreased to 15,533 VND/kg.