Global oil inventories are near an eight-year low, and Goldman Sachs warns of supply risks.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that global oil inventories, equivalent to 101 days of consumption, will fall to 98 days by 2026 amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Goldman Sachs has just issued a warning that global oil inventories are approaching their lowest level in eight years. This rapid decline, combined with supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz region, is becoming a major concern for the international energy market.
Oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions.
In early trading this week, oil prices rose by approximately 6% following reports of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, Iran carried out attacks on ships and caused fires at an oil port in the UAE. This is considered the biggest escalation of tensions since the ceasefire was established four weeks ago.
Despite efforts to use naval forces to ensure maritime traffic flow, the situation remains complex, putting direct pressure on world crude oil prices.
Forecast of crude oil and refined product inventories
According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, total global oil reserves currently amount to 101 days of consumption. However, this figure is projected to continue to decline to 98 days by the end of May 2026. The bank believes that while reserves are unlikely to fall below the minimum operating level this summer, the rate of decline is a cause for concern.
| Reserve Index | Current status (demand date) | Forecast/Previous (demand date) |
|---|---|---|
| Total global oil reserves | 101 | 98 (Forecast May 2026) |
| Commercial refined product inventory | 45 | 50 (Previously) |
Notably, global inventories of commercially refined oil products have fallen significantly from 50 days of demand to around 45 days. Goldman Sachs warns that readily accessible inventories of refined oil products are rapidly approaching very low levels, causing localized shortages in key regions.
Expert analysis
Financial experts at Goldman Sachs emphasize that the combination of tightening supply from the Strait of Hormuz and declining commercial inventories will create a sensitive market environment. The shortage of refined petroleum products will not only affect fuel prices but also have a ripple effect on many other supporting industries globally.
