The FAO forecasts global cereal production for the 2025/26 season to reach a record 3,029 million tonnes.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has raised its forecast for global grain production to 5.6% higher than in 2024, consolidating record levels thanks to breakthroughs in the rice and maize sectors.
According to the latest report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), published in March 2026, global cereal production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 3,029 million tons. This represents a 5.6% increase compared to 2024, setting a new record for the world's food supply.
Rice and corn production led the growth momentum.
The main driver of global grain production comes from strong growth in maize and rice. Specifically, Paraguay's maize production is estimated to have reached a record high. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, a sharp increase in planted area has pushed the country's rice production to its highest level in a decade.
The forecast for world rice production in the 2025/26 season has been revised upward by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled rice), a 2.1% increase from the previous year. Countries such as Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are the main drivers of growth, offsetting declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States.
Consumption and stockpiling remain at safe levels.
Global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is projected to reach a record 2,943 million tons, a 0.2% increase compared to the February 2026 forecast. Demand for corn and barley for animal feed is expected to increase significantly in South America due to abundant supply. Conversely, in the European Union (EU), the use of corn for animal feed is trending downward, giving way to wheat and barley.
Regarding reserves, the FAO has raised its forecast for global grain reserves at the end of the 2026 season to 940.5 million tons. The ratio of reserves to consumption is 31.9%, a level considered safe for global food security. Notably, world rice reserves could peak at 219.3 million tons thanks to strong procurement by the governments of Bangladesh and Indonesia.
| Index (Million tons) | 2025/26 crop year | Changes compared to last year |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain production | 3,029.0 | +5.6% |
| Rice production (milled rice) | 563.4 | +2.1% |
| Consumption of grains | 2,943.0 | +0.2% |
| Ending balance | 940.5 | But |
International trade and wheat prospects in 2026
World grain trade in the 2025/26 season is estimated at 501.7 million tons, a 3.5% increase compared to the previous season and the second highest level in history. However, international rice trade in 2026 is projected to decline slightly by 1.1% to 60.4 million tons.
Looking ahead to 2026, global wheat production could fall by nearly 3% to 810 million tons. This is primarily due to lower prices, leading farmers in the EU, Russia, and the United States to reduce their planted area. In Russia, higher yields from oilseed crops are driving a shift away from wheat. However, wheat production in India and Pakistan remains promising thanks to favorable weather conditions and government support policies.
