Coffee prices today, March 15th: Robusta plummets by $170/ton, hitting a 7-month low.
The global coffee market plummeted as Robusta prices lost nearly 5% in a single session. Pressure from record supply from Brazil and a strong US dollar caused both exchanges to fall sharply.
World coffee prices experienced a sharp correction on both the London and New York exchanges during the weekend's trading session. Selling pressure intensified as reports indicated a significant improvement in global supply, combined with the strength of the US dollar, putting considerable pressure on the commodity market.
Specifically, at the close of trading, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange for the May 2026 contract fell sharply by $170/ton, equivalent to 4.68%, to $3,455/ton. This is the lowest price for this contract in nearly 7 months. The July 2026 contract also lost $155/ton, equivalent to 4.38%, reaching $3,372/ton.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices moved in the same direction. The May 2026 contract fell 6.75 US cents/pound, or 2.3%, closing at 285.15 US cents/pound. The July 2026 contract fell 7.05 US cents/pound, or 2.46%, to 279.4 US cents/pound.
Supply from Brazil and Vietnam is creating significant pressure.
According to market analysts, Robusta coffee prices are under significant pressure as supply shows signs of increasing again, while crop prospects in major producing countries are becoming more positive.
One of the main factors contributing to the decline is the production forecast from Brazil. Consulting firm StoneX has raised its forecast for the country's coffee production in the 2026–2027 season to a record 75.3 million bags, a 20.8% increase from the previous season. The prospect of abundant supply from the world's largest producer is causing investors to worry about oversupply in the near future.
In Vietnam, the leading Robusta coffee producer, farmers are also beginning to increase sales amid concerns that prices may continue to adjust. Data from the Customs Department shows that in the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's coffee exports reached approximately 367,270 tons, valued at nearly $1.76 billion. Although export volume increased by 14.5% compared to the same period last year, the value recorded a slight decrease of 1.3%.
Impact of USD exchange rates and inventory factors
The decline in coffee prices is also being influenced by the recovery of the US dollar. The USD Index has risen to its highest level in about 3.5 months. A strong USD makes commodities priced in this currency more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby reducing buying demand.
In addition, data from exchanges shows that inventories are gradually recovering. As of March 13th, Arabica inventories monitored by the ICE exchange had increased to 572,004 bags, the highest level in 5.5 months. For Robusta, although there was a slight decrease at the end of the week to 4,517 lots, the previous inventory level had peaked in 3.5 months on March 3rd.
Regarding weather conditions, the Minas Gerais region of Brazil is receiving favorable rainfall, which is good support for the final stage of coffee plant development. However, the market still faces risks as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupt shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing transportation and insurance costs for global roasting businesses.
