Coffee prices on April 17, 2026: Robusta and Arabica both experienced sharp declines.
At the close of trading on April 16th, world coffee prices reversed course and fell due to pressure from the recovering DXY index. Robusta prices in London retreated to $3,474 per ton, while Arabica lost more than 2.5% of its value.
World coffee prices on April 16th recorded a simultaneous downward trend on both the London and New York exchanges. The main reason was the recovery of the DXY index from its lowest level in six weeks, triggering a wave of selling off long-term positions in the futures market.
Coffee price trends in the international market
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery reversed course, falling 1.52%, or $54/ton, compared to the previous session, to $3,474/ton. The July 2026 contract also recorded a decrease of 1.37% ($47/ton), reaching $3,347/ton.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee prices faced stronger downward pressure. The May 2026 contract fell 2.55%, or 7.8 US cents/pound, to 296.45 US cents/pound. The July 2026 contract decreased 2.62% (7.85 US cents/pound), currently standing at 290.4 US cents/pound.
Pressure from exchange rates and investor sentiment.
The strengthening of the US dollar was a key factor putting downward pressure on coffee prices on Thursday. However, the decline in Robusta was somewhat limited by ICE exchange inventory data showing a drop to its lowest level in 15 months, now standing at only 3,867 lots.
According to Reuters, despite significant price adjustments, the market remains sluggish. In Vietnam – the world's leading producer of Robusta coffee – farmers are currently holding onto their stock, not selling despite continued demand.
Extreme weather risk warning
The market is currently focusing its attention on weather developments in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is experiencing an unusually hot weather with temperatures exceeding 40°C in the northern region. Meteorologists predict a 61% probability of El Niño returning between May and June.
Notably, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 25% chance of a strong "super El Niño" occurring. If this scenario unfolds, severe drought and water shortages would directly threaten agricultural productivity and coffee yields for the next crop year in both Vietnam and Indonesia.
Although localized showers may occur this week in some key growing regions, experts believe that more heavy rainfall is needed to completely resolve the current drought situation.
