Malaysian palm oil prices rose to 4,184 ringgit, signaling an end to a 10-month inventory surge.
Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.72% in trading on February 9, 2026, reflecting gains in the soybean oil market and expectations for the January inventory report from the MPOB.
At the close of trading on the morning of February 9, 2026, Malaysian palm oil futures prices recorded a positive recovery. This movement occurred as the market awaited official data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and developments from the Price Outlook Meeting (POC) taking place from February 9 to 11, 2026.
Palm oil price movements on the Bursa Malaysia exchange.
The FCPOc3 palm oil contract for April 2026 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia exchange recorded gains throughout the morning session. At the start of the session, the price rose 12 ringgit (equivalent to 0.29%), reaching 4,166 ringgit/tonne (equivalent to US$1,060.32).
By lunchtime, the gains had widened to 30 ringgit, or 0.72%, closing at 4,184 ringgit/tonne (equivalent to $1,063.01). This recovery helped the market regain confidence after the earlier volatility.
Correlation with the global vegetable oil market
Palm oil prices are directly affected by price competition from other vegetable oils on a global scale, especially soybean oil.
| Exchange | Item | Morning session volatility | Lunch break time fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) | Soybean oil BOc2 | +1.3% | +1.63% |
| Dalian | Soybean oil DBYcv1 | +0.39% | +0.17% |
| Dalian | Palm oil DCPcv1 | -0.07% | Maintain price |
At the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while soybean oil edged up slightly by 0.17%, palm oil prices remained stable. Meanwhile, at the Chicago exchange, soybean oil recorded a stronger increase of 1.63%.
Monetary factors and pressure from the crude oil market.
The Malaysian ringgit initially fell 0.33% against the US dollar, but narrowed its losses to 0.13% by midday. The weakening currency made palm oil more affordable for international buyers using the US dollar.
On another front, US crude oil prices continued to fall as concerns about conflict in key supply regions eased. As crude oil weakened, palm oil became less attractive as a feedstock for biodiesel production, putting pressure on long-term growth.
Inventory forecast and technical analysis
According to a Reuters survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventories in January 2026 are projected to end a 10-month streak of increases. This is primarily due to a sharp rise in exports while production is in a seasonal decline. The Malaysian Oil and Gas Group (MPOB) is expected to release detailed figures on February 10, 2026.
From a technical perspective, Reuters analyst Wang Tao believes palm oil prices are likely to face downward pressure. If prices break through the support level of 4,148 ringgit/tonne, the next target could fall to the 4,083 ringgit/tonne region.
