Sugar prices fell for the fourth consecutive session, while soybeans hit a five-day low.
Abundant sugar supplies from Brazil, India, and Thailand are putting significant pressure on prices, while demand from China is weakening. Soybean prices are also falling due to low demand.
World sugar prices continue to plummet.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), world sugar prices recorded their fourth consecutive day of decline on December 18th. Specifically, the price of 11-karat sugar decreased.1.9%Prices fell to $319/ton, while white sugar prices dropped further.1.5%Prices fell to $415/ton. Selling pressure mainly stemmed from positive signals regarding supply from leading producing countries.
Abundant global supply
In Brazil, the South-Central region has entered the rainy season after the peak period ended. Although the total amount of sugarcane crushed has decreased slightly, cumulative sugar production up to the end of November still increased by 1.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching nearly 39.9 million tons. The forecast for total production for the 2025-2026 crop year is expected to exceed 40 million tons.
In India, favorable rainfall is expected to boost sugar production in the 2025-2026 season by up to 25%, reaching approximately 32.8 million tons. The government has also approved an export quota of 1.5 million tons of sugar, and export potential could be further expanded if production meets expectations.
Meanwhile, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025-2026 season is projected to increase by approximately 12% year-on-year, reaching over 11 million tons. This additional supply from Thailand is expected to put further pressure on prices in the first quarter, the period when Brazil enters its off-season.
Domestic demand and market
On the demand side, China's sugar imports in November reached only 440,000 tons, a sharp decrease of 18.2% compared to the same period last year, indicating a short-term slowdown.
In the Vietnamese market, purchasing power is quite slow. The price of imported Thai sugar (through unofficial channels) fluctuates between 16,200 and 17,000 VND/kg. Old crop sugar from factories is being sold at 16,600-16,700 VND/kg, but consumption is limited due to reduced quality.
Soybean prices continue their downward trend.
In the agricultural commodities market, soybean prices also extended their decline for the fifth consecutive session, losing more than0.5%The price fell to $386/ton. According to MXV, this decline reflects the discrepancy between sales signals and actual consumption demand, particularly from China.
Pressure from both supply and demand.
Despite the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting large export orders, the market remains cautious due to weak actual purchasing power from China. Chinese businesses are mainly buying cautiously and using supplies from national reserves, reducing the impetus for price increases.
Meanwhile, supply from South America continues to put pressure on the market. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) raised its December soybean export forecast to 3.57 million tonnes. In Argentina, the 2025-2026 crop forecast remains at 46.9 million tonnes, indicating that short-term supply is not yet threatened.
In financial markets, speculative capital is also withdrawing. Data from the CFTC shows that funds have reduced their net long positions, reflecting a lack of confidence in China's ability to significantly increase imports anytime soon.
