When will the price of gold break above the $4000 mark in the global market?
World gold prices have repeatedly surpassed the $4,000 mark only to fall again due to investor caution. A breakout above $4,050 would signal a new upward trend, paving the way for a rise to $4,200.
During the evening trading session on November 6th, the price of gold briefly surpassed $4,020 per ounce thanks to a weakening US dollar and increased safe-haven demand. However, profit-taking pressure caused the precious metal to lose momentum towards the end of the session, closing at $3,978.2 per ounce.
On the COMEX exchange, the price of gold for December delivery remained at $3,991 per ounce, virtually unchanged from the previous session.
The Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 99.7 points after hitting a three-month high of 100.2 points, providing temporary support for global gold prices. However, market sentiment remains cautious as investors await clearer signals from the US economy and Federal Reserve policy.
The wave of sell-offs in technology stocks, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, coupled with the risk of a US government shutdown, has fueled a sharp increase in demand for gold. According to expert Peter Grant from Zaner Metals, the demand for safe-haven assets is driving up global gold prices, potentially reaching $4,300-$4,400 per ounce by the end of the year.
During the same session, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, made net purchases of 1.8 tonnes of gold, raising its total holdings to 1,040.4 tonnes, further reinforcing confidence in the upward trend of global gold prices.
ING bank strategist Ewa Manthey forecasts that global gold prices will continue to rise in 2026. According to her, the average price in the first quarter of 2026 could reach $4,100 per ounce, higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. Factors such as central bank demand for gold and the Fed's trend of lowering interest rates are still supporting global gold prices.
Ms. Manthey believes the recent correction is merely a "healthy" development within a long-term uptrend. If global gold prices fall further, capital from individual and institutional investors could return strongly.
On the weekly chart, world gold prices are testing a strong support zone around $3,890/ounce. If they hold above this level, gold could regain upward momentum and move towards $4,400/ounce. Conversely, a break below $3,890/ounce could open the risk of a decline to the $3,700-$3,800/ounce range.
On the 4-hour timeframe, world gold prices are fluctuating narrowly around $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. A breakout above $4,050 per ounce would signal a new upward move, paving the way for a rise to $4,200 per ounce. If prices fall below $3,900 per ounce, a short-term correction remains possible.
Despite fluctuating around the $4,000/oz mark, world gold prices maintain a long-term upward trend. Central bank purchasing power, loose monetary policy, and safe-haven demand remain the main drivers. Investors are advised to patiently wait for a clearer breakout to seize opportunities from world gold prices.
