Gold prices continued to rise steadily during the first six months of the year.

Domestic gold prices remain volatile and unpredictable, moving in the same direction as world gold prices but reversing frequently within a small range. Notably, the gap between domestic and international gold prices has widened again after a short period of narrowing thanks to decisive government directives.

While on January 13, 2025, the world gold price closed at approximately $2,663.61/oz, and the domestic gold price was around 87 million VND/ounce, on July 13, the world gold price stood at $3,355.95/oz (~296 million VND/oz). Domestic SJC gold bars traded around 121.5 million VND, and 24K gold rings around 117.5 million VND/ounce. The current difference between domestic and international prices remains at approximately 125 million VND/ounce.

On the positive side, the domestic supply of SJC gold has improved thanks to the State Bank of Vietnam increasing distribution through the commercial banking system and addressing price manipulation. At the same time, public confidence in gold rings has increased, helping to narrow the gap between different types of gold of the same quality.

Globally, gold prices are influenced by: interest rate policies and the US dollar; geopolitical situations (wars, regional instability); the level of gold purchases by central banks and investment funds; global economic developments; and especially US tax agreements.

According to the World Gold Council, approximately over 200,000 tons of gold have been mined throughout history. Recycled gold accounts for nearly 30% of the supply, far exceeding the growth from mining. Gold remains considered a safe-haven asset, especially in the context of stagnant inflation and financial instability. Rising gold prices also pull up the prices of other precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. The outlook for gold prices depends on interest rates, geopolitics, and economic recovery.

Domestic gold prices are forecast to remain high or increase slightly, depending on fiscal and monetary policies, savings interest rates, and the attractiveness of the stock and real estate markets. The interconnectedness between domestic and international gold markets, as well as the level of transparency and fair competition among gold brands, also influence price trends.

Although many international organizations predict that gold could surpass $3,700-$3,800 per ounce by the end of the year, the strong upward momentum has begun to slow down, especially amidst expectations of geopolitical stability and the shift of capital to other channels such as US stocks, silver, and platinum.

The proportion of global USD reserves continues to decline, but no currency is strong enough to replace the USD in the short term. Gold remains a safe investment channel, but short-term trading requires knowledge and risk management. Small-scale investors should avoid borrowing money to speculate based on trends, as following the crowd can lead to significant losses.