Fuel prices could drop sharply from the afternoon of July 3, 2025.

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) has released its forecast for retail gasoline and diesel prices for the price adjustment period on the afternoon of July 3, 2025. According to a forecasting model using machine learning technology, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are likely to decrease sharply, ranging from 6.8% to 7.5%, benefiting consumers.

Detailed forecast of gasoline and diesel prices.

• E5 RON 92 gasoline: Decreased by 1,412 VND/liter, equivalent to 6.9%, to 19,118 VND/liter.
• RON 95-III gasoline: Reduced by 1,440 VND/liter, equivalent to 6.8%, to 19,670 VND/liter.
• Oil: Decreased by 7.5%, to 17,631 VND/liter.
• Diesel: Decreased by 7.1%, to 17,977 VND/liter.
• Fuel oil: Decreased by 7.2%, to 15,730 VND/kg.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the forecasting model is based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms, combining data on world oil prices, exchange rates, domestic tax policies, and macroeconomic factors.

Assuming the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not utilize the Price Stabilization Fund, the aforementioned price reduction is considered entirely feasible.

From July 1, 2025, according to Resolution 204/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly, the value-added tax (VAT) on gasoline and diesel has been reduced from 10% to 8%. This is an important factor contributing to the reduction of domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices in this price adjustment period, bringing direct benefits to consumers.

World oil price trends

On the international market, oil prices tended to rise slightly in early July 2025, mainly due to expectations of improved demand and attention focused on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) scheduled for July 6, 2025, to decide on August 2025 production levels.

At the close of trading on July 1, 2025, Brent crude oil prices rose 0.6% to $67.11 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased 0.5% to $65.45 per barrel. However, the gains were limited by concerns that OPEC+ might ease quotas, increasing global supply.

According to expert Alex Hodes from StoneX, OPEC+ is likely to agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August 2025 to compete for market share, especially with US shale oil producers.

Data released on July 1, 2025, shows that US shale oil production reached a record high in April 2025, signaling increasingly fierce competition.