Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten Middle Eastern food security.

Risk of disruption to the Gulf food supply chain.

The diversion of cargo ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz is causing disruptions to the supply of essential food in the Middle East. According to data from Kpler, approximately 30 million tons of grain were imported into the region last year, with the majority passing through the strategic waterway of Hormuz.

Specifically, Iran imports approximately 14 million tons of grain, with the main flow passing through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia also imports 40% of its grain and oilseeds through ports in the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) brings in about 90% of these goods through the Jebel Ali port in Dubai – which serves the needs of approximately 45–50 million people in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar.

Inflationary pressures and the situation in Iran

Iran is facing a serious risk of food insecurity. Ishan Bhanu, an analyst at Kpler, warned that the country will face major problems if the disruption continues. Currently, food and beverage inflation in Iran has exceeded 105% in the month ending February 19. Annual inflation for the same period remained at 47.5%.

To address the situation, the Iranian government has taken emergency measures:

• All exports of food and agricultural products are banned until further notice to prioritize domestic supply.
• The food voucher program, launched at the beginning of January, provides a credit of 10 million rial (approximately $6) per month to 80 million people.
• Maintain a strategic reserve of approximately 4 million tons of wheat, enough to meet consumption needs for up to 4 months.

However, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stated in February that approximately one-third of the country's population lives in poverty. The weakening rial and US financial sanctions have made it difficult for importers to pay in hard currency, leading to corn-laden ships being stranded offshore in recent weeks.

The adaptability of neighboring countries

Besides Iran, countries like Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia—which rely on the UAE as a transit point—also face the risk of food shortages and rising prices. Conversely, wealthier nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have the financial capacity to absorb increased import costs if necessary.

Alternative solutions being considered by countries in the region include:

• Port diversion:Saudi Arabia could shift its cargo to ports on the Red Sea. The UAE could divert some of its trade to the port of Fujairah, although its container handling capacity is lower than that of Jebel Ali.
• Road transport:Iran has begun importing some of its grain by land, such as wheat from Russia or rice from Pakistan.
• Air transport:This could apply to high-value, perishable goods in extreme situations, similar to the case of Qatar in 2017.

According to the UAE Ministry of Economy and Tourism, the country's strategic reserves of essential goods remain strong and diversified. In some areas, such as Dubai, localized shortages in supermarkets are attributed to hoarding by the public rather than a structural breakdown in the supply chain.