Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to reach $13,735 per ton in 2026.

Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, has officially raised its copper price forecast for the end of 2026 to $13,735 per ton, a significant increase from the previous forecast of $12,465 per ton. This adjustment comes amid a tighter-than-expected global copper market due to weak production and strong demand from the US.

Copper price outlook for the period 2026-2027

In addition to its 2026 target, Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2027 to $13,800 per ton, higher than the previously estimated $12,150 per ton. According to analysts, the global copper market (excluding the US) is expected to face a deficit of approximately 640,000 tons in 2026 and 170,000 tons in 2027.

The main reason for this shortage is that global copper production growth has not met expectations, directly limiting available supply. Meanwhile, the US is projected to increase imports, diverting a large amount of this precious metal away from other markets to meet domestic demand.

Supply growth at major mines is weak.

A Goldman Sachs report indicates that total output at large-scale copper mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo is currently about 200,000 tonnes lower than previous estimates. Analysts believe these two mines are unlikely to fully restore capacity before 2028.

Notably, US copper inventories are projected to increase to approximately 900,000 tons in 2026, higher than the previously projected 550,000 tons. The sharp increase in imports is expected to quickly absorb existing global supply.

Risk scenarios impacting the market

Although Goldman Sachs' base scenario assumes the US will not impose tariffs on copper imports in 2026, the bank still points out several risks that could completely alter the price outlook:

• Downside risk:If the Strait of Hormuz remains under a prolonged blockade, copper prices could fall to $12,600 per ton due to the risk of an energy crisis weakening global industrial demand.
• Risk of price increase:The imposition of US import tariffs could push prices above $14,000 per ton in the second half of 2026.
• Stable scenario:If Washington confirms it will not impose tariffs, metal prices could cool to around $12,800 per ton by 2027 as supply pressure gradually eases.

In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain stable around the current level of $13,600 per ton before entering new cycles of volatility based on trade policies and geopolitical developments.