The US-Ukraine's secret three-step plan to retake Donbass.

The US and Ukraine have outlined a three-step plan to retake Donbass.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin stated on the "Novoye Vremya" radio station on September 22nd that the draft resolution of the UN Security Council on resolving the Donbass issue had been completed long ago.

According to this diplomat, the document, drafted jointly by Western countries and Ukraine, consists of three sections.

The first section discusses the importance of the presence of international peacekeeping forces in Donbass.

The Ukrainian minister noted that troop numbers are not the most important factor; the crucial issue is that the operation must be consistent with the principle of "controlling the conflict," meaning that peacekeeping troops should be present in the conflict zone, and "cannot sit idly by on the border between the two front lines."

The second item on the "secret plan" was to deploy police forces in the Donbass conflict zone.

According to Minister Pavel Klimkin, it is necessary to ensure the "genuine disarmament" of illegal armed groups in the conflict zone and the deployment of forces responsible for security. Therefore, the second objective will focus on the deployment of police forces in Donbass.

The third item on the "secret plan" was to establish an international administrative body in Donbass.

According to Klimkin, after peace and order have been restored in eastern Ukraine, the United Nations will establish an international administrative body in Donbass to replace the current power structure in the conflict zone.

Essentially, the plan of the US and Ukraine is to use UN peacekeeping forces to regain control of the two breakaway Donbass provinces, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has never given up its intention to reclaim Donbass.

Although the Ukrainian Foreign Minister called the last two points of the "secret plan" "major issues of principle," analysts believe that the first point is the decisive factor in the plan's success or failure.

The three most important points of this plan also represent three sequential steps to reclaim this breakaway territory. Successful completion of the first step would then allow for the second, and only then could the third step be completed to regain Donbass.

A prerequisite is that the US and Ukraine must deploy peacekeeping forces in the Donbass region before they can hope to disarm the Donetsk and Lugansk militias; only then can a police force be established to maintain security and order.

If the first two steps are successfully taken, establishing an international administrative management structure will be extremely easy.

Experts believe that although the plan by the US and Ukraine may sound "perfect" at first glance, its implementation is almost "hopeless," because not only will the DPR and LPR not approve it, but the biggest obstacle they will never be able to overcome is Russia.

Russia thwarted the US-Ukraine plan from the very first step.

Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he also supported the idea of ​​sending a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, but Moscow also has its own principles for such a deployment.

The US and Ukraine argue that the scope and authority of UN peacekeeping forces should be broadened, allowing them to "take on all actions" in all areas of Ukrainian territory up to the Russian border.

The US and Ukraine want UN blue-helmeted forces deployed in the Donbass region, whose main function would be to "monitor the entire situation in eastern Ukraine, ensuring peace and security throughout the 'occupied' territories, up to the border with Russia."

With these functions, this force would replace or at least have equivalent authority to the OSCE in monitoring the ceasefire, and even have the right to launch military action if the situation in Donbass does not "follow the UN's roadmap".

Retaking Donbass by military force is impossible.

In essence, the UN forces would be tasked with preventing the actions and then disarming the militias of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) in Donbass, while simultaneously freeing up the Ukrainian Army.

The US and Ukraine want the blue-helmeted forces to "take control of conflict monitoring," meaning they want to use this opportunity to directly intervene in eastern Ukraine, change the mechanisms and institutions for conflict monitoring stipulated in the Minsk 2 Agreement, and shift the approach in a way that benefits them.

However, Russia rejected this, arguing that Kyiv seemed intent on assigning the UN's "blue helmet" fighters a completely different role: that of an "occupying force" to "re-establish Western order" in southeastern Ukraine and set up international protection there.

According to Russia, the mission of the UN mission should only focus on ensuring the safety of the OSCE's ceasefire monitoring mission in Ukraine (SMM), which is conducting surveillance in the conflict zone.

Russia and Donbass demand that members of the UN forces "be stationed on the demarcation line between the two front lines," and not be positioned on either side.

Thus, Russia has limited its peacekeeping forces to purely security functions; these forces themselves do not have the function of monitoring ceasefires and are not permitted to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin's proposal essentially does not change the fundamental approach to achieving peace in Donbass, as envisioned in the Minsk 2 Agreement, which is to maintain the OSCE's role in monitoring the ceasefire for both sides and prevent the US from interfering in eastern Ukraine.

Russia and the separatist forces would never allow a US-dominated monitoring mission to deeply interfere in the internal affairs of Donbass, while Ukrainian forces are free to act in their plot to remove the pro-Russian governments in the DPR and LPR.

Conversely, Washington and Kyiv want to use the United Nations to send troops into Donbass to control the separatist forces; at the same time, they do not allow Moscow to participate in the UN delegation to prevent any potential military adventures.

Clearly, given the fundamental contradictions in the parties' views on the civil war in eastern Ukraine, objective 1, and the first step in the plan to use the UN to retake Donbass, will be impossible to implement, let alone proceed with objectives 2 and 3.

Ukraine's plan would only be truly feasible if Russia and the Donbass separatist forces were in a weak position, forced to accept their opponents' demands. However, the reality of the war in eastern Ukraine has never shown this to be the case.