US-Ukraine's secret 3-step plan to retake Donbass

US-Ukraine outline 3-step plan to regain Donbass

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin said on the “Novoye Vremya” radio station on September 22 that the draft resolution of the UN Security Council on resolving the Donbass issue was completed a long time ago.

According to the diplomat, the document drafted by Western countries together with Ukraine consists of three sections.

The first section talks about the importance of the presence of international peacekeeping forces in Donbass.

The Ukrainian minister noted that the number of troops is not the most important factor, but the most important issue is that the operation must be consistent with the concept of "controlling the conflict", that is, peacekeepers should be present in the conflict zone, and "cannot sit idly by on the border between the two fronts".

The second item of the "secret plan" is to deploy police forces in the Donbass conflict zone.

According to Minister Pavel Klimkin, it is necessary to ensure the "real disarmament" of illegal armed groups in the conflict zone and the deployment of forces responsible for security. Therefore, the second item will focus on the deployment of police forces in Donbass.

The third item of the "secret plan" is to establish an international administrative management in Donbass.

According to Klimkin, after peace and order have been restored in eastern Ukraine, the United Nations will establish an international administrative management board in Donbass to replace the current power structure established in this conflict zone.

In essence, the US and Ukraine's plan is to use UN peacekeeping forces to regain control of the two separatist Donbass provinces, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has never given up on its intention to reclaim Donbass.

Although the Ukrainian Foreign Minister called the last two items of the "secret plan" "super big issues of principle," according to analysts, the first item is the decisive factor in the success or failure of the plan.

The three most important points of this plan are also synonymous with three successive steps to reclaim this breakaway territory. If the first step is successfully implemented, then the second step can be implemented, and then the third step to regain Donbass can be completed.

The prerequisite is that the US and Ukraine must deploy peacekeeping forces in the Donbass region so that they can hope to disarm the Donetsk and Lugansk militias; then they can establish a police force to maintain security and order.

If the first two steps are taken, establishing an international administrative management structure is very easy.

Experts say that although the US and Ukraine's plan sounds "perfect" at first, its implementation is almost "hopeless", because not only will the DPR and LPR not accept this, but the biggest obstacle they will never overcome is Russia.

Russia blocks US-Ukraine plan from the first step

Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he also supported the idea of ​​sending a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, but Moscow also had its own principles for this deployment.

The United States and Ukraine believe that the scope of the UN peacekeeping mission and its mandate should be expanded, allowing “all actions” to be taken in all areas of Ukraine up to the Russian border.

The US and Ukraine want the UN Blue Helmets to be deployed in the Donbass region, with the main function of “monitoring the entire situation in Eastern Ukraine, ensuring peace and security throughout the ‘occupied’ territory, all the way to the border with Russia”.

With the above function, this force will replace or at least have the same authority as the OSCE in monitoring the ceasefire, and even have the right to launch military actions if the situation in Donbass does not "go according to the UN roadmap".

Retaking Donbass by military force is impossible

Thus, in essence, the UN force will undertake the task of preventing action, and then disarming the militias of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) in Donbass, while naturally disarming the Ukrainian Army.

The US and Ukraine want the Blue Berets to “take control of the conflict”, that is, to take this opportunity to directly intervene in Eastern Ukraine, change the conflict monitoring mechanism and institutions stipulated in the Minsk Agreement 2, and change the approach in their favor.

However, Russia has denied this and said that Kiev seems to intend to assign the UN "blue helmets" a completely different role, that of an "occupying force" to "restore Western order" in southeastern Ukraine, establishing an international protectorate there.

According to Russia, the UN mission's mission should only be aimed at ensuring the safety of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)'s ceasefire monitoring mission in Ukraine (SMM), which is carrying out monitoring duties in the war zone.

Russia and Donbass require members of the UN force to “be stationed on the line of demarcation between the two fronts”, and not to stand on either side.

Thus, Russia has limited the peacekeeping force to a purely security function, but the force itself does not have the function of monitoring the ceasefire and is not allowed to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine.

Mr. Putin's proposal does not essentially change the nature of the approach to a solution to bring peace in Donbass in the spirit of the Minsk 2 Agreement, which is to maintain the role of the OSCE in monitoring the ceasefire on both sides, preventing the US from intervening in Eastern Ukraine.

Russia and the separatists will never allow a US-dominated monitoring mission to intervene deeply in Donbass affairs, while Ukrainian forces are fully empowered to carry out their plot to eliminate the pro-Russian authorities in the DPR and LPR.

On the contrary, Washington and Kiev want to take advantage of the United Nations to send troops to Donbass to control the separatist forces; at the same time, they also do not allow Moscow to join the UN delegation to prevent their military adventures.

Obviously, with the fundamental contradictions in the views of the parties on the civil war in Eastern Ukraine, item 1 and also the first step in the plan to borrow the hand of the United Nations to retake Donbass will not be possible, let alone implementing items 2 and 3.

Ukraine’s plan would only be feasible if Russia and the Donbass separatists were in a weak position and forced to accept their opponents’ demands. However, the reality of the war in eastern Ukraine has never shown this.