Crazy scenario for U17 Indonesia at U17 World Cup
U17 Indonesia beat Honduras to get 3 historic points, ranked 3rd in group H but ranked 9th out of 12 third-placed teams; to continue, they need Paraguay or Saudi Arabia to lose heavily.
Three points against Honduras is not only the first World Cup victory in the history of Indonesian football in the age group finals, but also opens a narrow door for U17 Indonesia to enter the round of 32 of the U17 World Cup 2025. That door will only open if a series of results in the remaining groups go in a favorable direction.
The mechanism for moving forward and the current position
According to the tournament rules, the first and second teams of the 12 groups and the eight best third-placed teams will advance to the round of 32. At the end of Group H, U17 Indonesia ranked third with 3 points, 4 points behind Brazil and Zambia (the top two teams have 7 points each). Based on the current rankings of the third-placed teams, U17 Indonesia ranked 9th with 3 points and a goal difference of -5, one place behind the group that advances.
Scenarios U17 Indonesia needs
To make it into the top eight third-placed teams with the best records, Indonesia must look forward to favorable results in the final round of matches of the remaining groups on Tuesday (November 11, 2025):
- Scenario 1: Paraguay U17 lost to the Republic of Ireland with a minimum difference of 6 goals in the last round of Group J. Paraguay currently has 3 points and a goal difference of 0.
- If not Paraguay, the second hope comes from Saudi Arabia U17: this team needs to lose to Mali U17 by the same margin in Group L on the same day.
- Besides, U17 Uganda must beat U17 France.
- U17 Chile is predicted not to win U17 Canada.
The combination of the above conditions will help Indonesia rise to the group of eight third-place teams with the best records.
Impact if continued
If the above scenarios happen simultaneously, U17 Indonesia will be present in the round of 32 (1/32) of the U17 World Cup 2025. This will be an unprecedented milestone in the history of men's football in Southeast Asia. Previously, with the victory over Honduras, U17 Indonesia became the first ASEAN men's football team to win a match at the World Cup finals in all age groups.
Notable statistics
- U17 Indonesia: 3 points, ranked 3rd in group H; goal difference -5; ranked 9/12 in the third-place group.
- Brazil and Zambia lead Group H with seven points each; Indonesia is four points behind.
- Key scenario: Paraguay lose to Republic of Ireland by ≥ 6 goals or Saudi Arabia lose to Mali by the same margin, while Uganda wins against France and Chile fails to beat Canada.
The chances are slim, but they are there. After their historic performance against Honduras, Indonesia have done their part; the rest depends on how the other groups finish.
