Iran's retaliation scenario if attacked by the US.
According to international observers, despite heavy losses following Israeli and US airstrikes last summer and increasing domestic pressure, Iran still maintains a range of strategic deterrence assets. From its massive ballistic missile arsenal and regional proxy network to its ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran could potentially cause major disruptions to both the Middle East and the global economy if a conflict with Washington were to erupt.
Ready for a "battle for survival"
For nearly half a century, Iran has been preparing for a military confrontation with the United States. Aware of the disparity in traditional military power, Tehran has focused on developing an asymmetrical strategy aimed at imposing extremely high costs, forcing its adversary to back down.
Currently, even as negotiations continue, the US military is significantly increasing its air and naval presence in the Middle East. The tough rhetoric from US President Donald Trump and the open possibility of attacking Iran further fuel concerns about a devastating, large-scale war.
Experts believe that how Tehran uses deterrence tools will depend on the level of threat it perceives.
The Tehran regime possesses a great deal of formidable capability. If they consider this a life-or-death struggle, they could deploy everything they have.
Senior expert Farzin Nadimi from the Washington Institute analyzes the situation.
Here are the main possible responses Iran could take in the event of an attack:
Mưa tên lửa và máy bay không người lái
Iran hiện sở hữu hàng nghìn tên lửa đạn đạo và máy bay không người lái (UAV) có tầm bắn bao trùm các căn cứ của lực lượng Mỹ tại nhiều quốc gia Trung Đông cũng như toàn bộ lãnh thổ Israel.
Khả năng xuyên thủng lưới phòng không của vũ khí Iran đã được kiểm chứng. Hồi tháng 6/2025, sau đòn tấn công bất ngờ của Israel, Tehran đã đáp trả bằng những làn sóng tên lửa và UAV dồn dập, vượt qua các hệ thống đánh chặn tinh vi của Tel Aviv và gây ra nhiều thiệt hại. Các quan chức Iran khẳng định, kho vũ khí sử dụng trong cuộc xung đột đó đã được bổ sung đầy đủ.
Theo đánh giá của giới chức Mỹ, những hệ thống vũ khí đã qua thực chiến này tiếp tục là mối đe dọa thường trực. Iran đã phát triển, thử nghiệm và triển khai hơn 20 loại tên lửa đạn đạo, đủ sức đe dọa các mục tiêu xa tới tận Nam Âu. Dòng UAV cảm tử Shahed của nước này cũng đã chứng minh được sức hủy diệt thực tế trên chiến trường.
Chúng tôi có từ 30.000 đến 40.000 binh sĩ Mỹ đồn trú tại 8 hoặc 9 cơ sở trong khu vực. Tất cả đều nằm trong tầm bắn của hàng nghìn UAV cảm tử và tên lửa đạn đạo tầm ngắn của Iran.
Ngoại trưởng Mỹ Marco Rubio nhấn mạnh hồi tháng trước
Theo nhận định của giới chức Mỹ, dù lạc hậu và kém xa về công nghệ so với phương Tây, quy mô kho vũ khí của Tehran vẫn khiến bất kỳ kế hoạch tấn công dứt điểm nào của Washington trở nên vô cùng khó khăn. Tehran cũng nhiều lần cảnh báo sẽ nhắm mục tiêu vào các đồng minh của Mỹ trong khu vực.
Trong quá khứ, khi máy bay ném bom Mỹ không kích các cơ sở hạt nhân của Iran vào mùa Hè năm ngoái, Tehran đã phóng tên lửa vào căn cứ không quân al-Udeid ở Qatar - cơ sở quân sự lớn nhất của Mỹ tại Trung Đông.
Kích hoạt mạng lưới "Trục kháng chiến"
Over the past two years, Israel has dealt heavy blows to Iran's proxy networks, significantly weakening Tehran's ability to extend its reach beyond its borders. Nevertheless, these armed groups continue to declare their readiness to defend the Islamic Republic.
Iraqi militia groups such as Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba – organizations that have repeatedly attacked US forces in the past, along with the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon – have all affirmed that they would come to Iran's aid if it were attacked.
Last month, the commander of Kataeb Hezbollah, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, called on those loyal to Iran worldwide to "prepare for an all-out war."
However, this network is facing numerous obstacles. In Lebanon, Hezbollah's power has been significantly weakened after 13 months of conflict with Israel and is now grappling with domestic pressure to disarm. In Iraq, powerful militia groups are being constrained by a central government under considerable pressure from the US to limit Tehran's influence.
Meanwhile, the Houthi forces in Yemen, despite constant bombing by the US and Israel, have emerged as one of Iran's most dangerous "extensions." This group has attacked Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, and even US warships in the Red Sea. In late January, the Houthi released a video showing a burning ship accompanied by a short, threatening message: "Coming soon."
Economic warfare and the "choke point" of Hormuz
Tehran has repeatedly warned that a war against Iran would not be confined to the Middle East but would create a global earthquake. As one of the leading energy producers, Iran holds strategic leverage due to its ability to disrupt global energy markets and trade routes.
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway that carries more than one-fifth of the world's oil and a large portion of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Tehran has threatened to close the strait if attacked. Experts warn that this scenario could drive fuel prices skyrocket and trigger a global economic recession.
A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is an extremely dangerous scenario. Even a partial disruption would cause prices to skyrocket, supply chains to break, and global inflation to be amplified.
Umud Shokri, an energy strategist in Washington, offered his assessment.
However, a blockade of Hormuz may be Iran's last resort, as it would also cripple its own economy and severely impact neighboring Arab nations – countries that are already lobbying the Trump administration to abandon its attack plans and commit to not allowing Washington to use their territory as a military springboard.
Instead of a complete blockade, Iran could employ asymmetrical warfare. Its military says it has built deep underground naval bases along the coast, with dozens of fast attack craft ready to deploy in the Persian Gulf. The ability to lay mines, use suicide drones, and employ swarm tactics could turn this region into a nightmare for Western navies.
History has proven this capability. In the late 1980s, during the "Tank War," Iran laid mines in the Persian Gulf, nearly sinking the USS Samuel B. Roberts while it was escorting Kuwaiti oil tankers.
In 2019, a series of oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Combined with the Houthi forces' ability to threaten trade through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, Iran wields immense power to inflict economic damage on a global scale.
"The next war may not start in the heart of Tehran, but will erupt right in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf," concluded expert Nadimi from the Washington Institute.
In a recent development, according to AFP, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealed that President Donald Trump is wondering why Iran has not yet "surrendered" to the immense military pressure from Washington.
Currently, the US and Iran are holding negotiations mediated by Oman in Geneva, Switzerland, to defuse tensions. President Trump has set a 15-day deadline for Tehran to present a new nuclear agreement. On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a draft proposal would be finalized in the next few days.
Despite pressure from the US deployment of aircraft carriers and military equipment to the region, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei asserted that Washington would not be able to defeat the Islamic Republic. Tehran continues to deny accusations of developing nuclear weapons, while emphasizing that the core objective of negotiations is the lifting of economic sanctions.
Notably, Special Envoy Witkoff confirmed he met with exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi at Trump's direction. This move came shortly after Washington left open the possibility of supporting "regime change" in Iran.
