Vietnam's economy is growing strongly, with its GDP poised to surpass Thailand's.
Vietnam is on track to surpass Thailand in GDP size this year, as economic growth is driven by public investment projects and a series of key infrastructure projects about to be put into operation.
Vietnam's growth stands out against the backdrop of a highly polarized Southeast Asian economy. (Image:)Quynh Danh.
The economic landscape of Southeast Asia is undergoing significant shifts. While the Thai economy is slowing down, Vietnam continues to maintain its growth momentum thanks to increased public investment and infrastructure development, according to...Nikkei Asia.
Specifically, Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow by 8.02% in 2025, and the government aims for growth exceeding 10% in 2026 and subsequent years. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh affirmed that double-digit growth is achievable.
If the growth momentum is maintained, Vietnam's nominal GDP could average over $500 billion in the 2026-2027 period. This would mean Vietnam could surpass Thailand, becoming the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia.
Vietnam's GDP per capita could also surpass that mark.5,000 USD, approaching the level of Indonesia.
The main driver of growth comes from infrastructure investment across the country. According to Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist of BIDV, the public investment plan for 2026 is expected to increase by about 26%, which could contribute an additional 1.6 percentage points to economic growth.
Simultaneously, a series of major infrastructure projects are being implemented, most notably the Long Thanh International Airport in Dong Nai, expected to begin commercial operation in mid-2026, and the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway line in the northern region.
However, experts note that legal reforms and simplification of administrative procedures remain key conditions for maintaining investment attractiveness, given that more than 2,000 projects nationwide are still facing legal obstacles.
Vietnam's nominal GDP has grown rapidly over the past decade, narrowing the gap with Thailand and the Philippines. (Data:)IMF.
In contrast to Vietnam's economic growth, Thailand's outlook is considered less positive. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that the country's real GDP will only grow by about 1.5% in 2026, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous year.
Rising household debt is stifling consumption in Thailand, while the tourism sector is recovering slowly, and manufacturing is being affected by US tariffs.Nikkei AsiaNot only Vietnam, but the Philippines is also considered to have the potential to surpass Thailand amidst the weakening growth drivers of that economy.
New car sales also reflect changing economic conditions in the region. In Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest market, sales from January to October 2025 reached approximately 660,000 units, a decrease of about 10% compared to the same period last year. This figure is roughly equivalent to Malaysia, a country with a population only about one-tenth that of Indonesia.
Many Japanese corporations that previously viewed Thailand and Indonesia as manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia are beginning to review their strategies. Suzuki withdrew from its automotive production in Thailand in 2025, while Honda scaled back its operations.
