Messi needs an extraordinary performance in the 2026 World Cup final to surpass Mbappe and win the Golden Boot.
With 10 goals after the third-place match, Kylian Mbappe holds a huge advantage in the Golden Boot race. Lionel Messi would need a special scenario against Spain to be able to dethrone the French superstar.
The 2026 World Cup final between Argentina and Spain, scheduled for 2 AM on July 20th, is not only a battle for the world football crown but also a fierce contest for the Golden Boot. Following Kylian Mbappe's impressive performance in the third-place playoff, the pressure to score is now heavily placed on captain Lionel Messi.
Kylian Mbappe and his historical statistics.
Despite France's 4-6 defeat to England in the third-place match, Kylian Mbappe had a breakout tournament. His brace against England brought the 27-year-old's total goals at the 2026 World Cup to 10. Even more remarkably, Mbappe officially surpassed legends to become the greatest goalscorer in World Cup history with 22 goals in just 22 appearances.
Currently, Lionel Messi is right behind with 8 goals. To close the gap in goals, Messi needs at least a brace against Spain. However, according to FIFA regulations, simply equalizing the number of goals is not enough for the Argentine superstar to win this prestigious individual award.
Disadvantages from tie-breaking criteria and match time rules.
When two players have the same number of goals, the first criterion considered is the number of assists. Currently, both Mbappe and Messi have 4 assists each. If Messi scores 2 goals and doesn't provide any more assists in the final, the two superstars will remain tied in both key statistics.
At this point, the deciding criterion will be the number of minutes played: the player with less playing time will be ranked higher. This is Messi's fatal weakness in this race. Kylian Mbappe finished his campaign with 699 minutes of playing time (an average of 87.4 minutes per game). Meanwhile, Messi currently has 620 minutes after 7 matches.
If Messi starts and plays the full 90 minutes against Spain, his total playing time will reach 710 minutes, surpassing Mbappe's. Therefore, if he only manages to equalize the number of goals and assists, M10 will have to watch his younger teammate win the Golden Boot due to having played more minutes.
The scenario for Messi to dethrone Mbappe.
To determine his own destiny and convincingly surpass Mbappe, Lionel Messi must fulfill one of the following two conditions in the final:
- Scenario 1:He scored a hat-trick (3 goals) to take sole possession of the top spot with 11 goals.
- Scenario 2:Score two goals and provide at least one assist to surpass Mbappe in the first tie-breaking criterion.
Messi faces an immense challenge as Spain boasts an extremely disciplined defense in this year's tournament. However, with a genius who always knows how to shine in crucial moments, Argentinian fans still have reason to hope for a spectacular upset in North America.
