NATO suspects Russia is developing anti-satellite weapons related to Starlink.

Two intelligence agencies from NATO member states are reportedly concerned that Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon targeting the Starlink satellite network supporting Ukraine on the battlefield. This information, obtained from intelligence sources accessed by the Associated Press, suggests Moscow's efforts to curb Western space dominance.

Main objective: to curb the West's space dominance.

According to sources cited by AP, the weapons system being developed by Russia is believed to be aimed directly at the West's space advantage – a factor that plays a key role in supporting Ukraine. At the heart of the concern is Starlink, SpaceX's network of thousands of low-orbit satellites, which has become a critical communications infrastructure for Ukrainian forces.

Starlink satellites provide high-speed internet service, used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting, and various other tasks. The network also serves civilians and government officials in areas where ground-based communications have been disrupted by Russian attacks. Therefore, Russian officials consider Starlink a serious threat and have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could become legitimate targets.

The "region effect" mechanism: creates debris clouds in orbit.

The new weapon is described as creating a “regional effect” in orbit, rather than attacking individual satellites. According to information accessed by AP, the concept involves flooding Starlink's operational orbit with hundreds of thousands of high-density debris fragments, thereby potentially disabling multiple satellites simultaneously.

This approach differs from previous tests, in which a missile was used to destroy a single satellite. In the new scenario, dense debris clouds would form a dangerous zone in orbit, putting many satellites passing through that area at risk of damage or destruction. This could cause significant losses for a satellite constellation like Starlink, which relies on a large number of low-orbit satellites to maintain coverage and service continuity.

However, this very "region effect" method also carries significant risks. Analysts have been quoted as warning that deploying a weapon that creates such a dense cloud of debris could cause uncontrolled chaos in space. The debris would not only threaten Starlink but could also potentially impact many other operational satellite systems in nearby orbits.

Risk of contagion: impacting both Russia and China.

According to the quoted assessment, the consequences of such an attack would not be limited to Western satellite systems. Orbital debris could quickly spread, affecting other companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China. Both countries currently rely on thousands of satellites for communications, defense, and many other essential services.

This presents a paradox: a weapon system designed to cripple an enemy's communications infrastructure could simultaneously harm the deployer's own satellite network and that of its partners. The risk of "self-inflicted damage" is one of the reasons analysts warn of the potential for uncontrolled destruction if such debris clouds are created in orbit.

A cautious assessment from the Commander of the Canadian Space Division.

Brigadier General Christopher Horner, commander of the Canadian Army's Space Division, was quoted by AP as saying that the possibility of Russia researching this field cannot be ruled out. He made this assessment in the context of previous US accusations that Moscow was pursuing a type of indiscriminate nuclear weapon that could be deployed in space.

Horner said he could not confirm whether he had been specifically informed about the type of system the sources were referring to. However, he argued that if the information about a nuclear weapons system in space was accurate and Russia was willing to pursue that development, then it was "not impossible" that the country would research a similar system, with comparable destructive power but without nuclear capabilities.

From a technical standpoint, Horner also emphasized the difficulty in envisioning how to control debris clouds so that they only affect Starlink. Once debris is created in orbit, it can quickly "get out of control," moving and colliding in unpredictable trajectories, causing dangerous ripple effects.

Russia's public stance on space weapons.

On the diplomatic front, Russia has previously called on the United Nations to intensify efforts to prevent the deployment of weapons in orbit. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly asserted that Moscow has no intention of putting nuclear weapons into space. These statements stand in stark contrast to accusations and concerns from the US and Western intelligence sources regarding Russia's space weapons program.

Nevertheless, Russia's view of Starlink as a serious threat and its repeated hints that commercial satellites serving military purposes could become targets demonstrate the increasing integration of space into the operational environment. The support Starlink provides to Ukraine, in the context of a conflict with Russia now in its fourth year, further highlights the growing relevance of commercial satellite systems to military operations.

Existing capabilities and information gaps

This month, Moscow announced the deployment of the new S-500 ground-based missile system, described as capable of striking targets in low Earth orbit. Previously, in 2021, Russia used a missile to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, creating a significant amount of debris in orbit. According to AP, unlike the 2021 test which targeted a single satellite, the anti-Starlink weapon system mentioned now is believed to target multiple satellites simultaneously.

However, what AP has gathered so far does not indicate when Russia might deploy this new weapon system, nor does it clarify whether it has been tested or is still in the early stages of research. The level of technical maturity, practical deployment capabilities, and specific timeline are all open questions.

In this context, current assessments are primarily based on information from intelligence sources and expert analysis, with limited certainty. This forces stakeholders to consider two factors simultaneously: not underestimating the potential risks from new space weapon systems, but also exercising caution before drawing definitive conclusions about their actual capabilities.