Premier League: Why did Man City win every game but still lose the title to Arsenal?
Manchester City and Arsenal are heading towards a scenario where the title is decided by goal difference, forcing Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta to remove all defensive barriers.
The race for the 2025-26 Premier League title is witnessing a crazy scenario: goal difference could become the sole measure to determine the champion. After the clash at the Etihad, although Manchester City currently hold their fate in their own hands, the pressure to score as many goals as possible is pushing both teams into a life-or-death battle where every goal is as precious as gold.
The 85-point script and the haunting memories of the past.
Many believe that Man City have one hand on the silver trophy thanks to their status as the reigning champions and their devastating form. However, a fact few people notice is that even if Pep Guardiola's team wins all six remaining matches, they are still not guaranteed the title. If Arsenal also win all five of their final matches, both teams will finish the season with 85 points.
The Premier League has only seen the title decided by goal difference once before, in the 2011-12 season. Currently, Arsenal are leading Man City by just one goal on this tiebreaker. This forces managers to make a difficult decision: continue attacking to improve their goal difference or defend deep to protect their slender lead.
The rise of Arsenal and the ambitions of Mikel Arteta
Despite not winning at the Etihad, Arsenal sent a strong message about their attacking prowess. Their expected goals (xG) reached 1.62, higher than Man City's 1.36 – a rare figure for any visiting team at this stadium. Arteta's team created 458 pressing opportunities, a record for their own team this season.
The history of matches against teams in the lower half of the table also favors Arsenal. They have won 12 and drawn 3 of their 15 games against these opponents, scoring 37 goals and conceding only 8. Their goal difference of +29 from these matches provides a solid basis for fans to believe that the Islington (London) team can overtake Man City in the final rounds of the season.
The painful lessons from the Crystal Palace disaster.
Focusing solely on attacking to improve goal difference always comes with enormous risks. Liverpool paid dearly in the 2013-14 season when, leading Crystal Palace 3-0, they pushed forward hoping to close the goal difference gap with Man City. The result was a 3-3 draw, and they bitterly lost the championship.
This is a warning for both Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta. Man City currently possess game-changing players like Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku, while Nico O'Reilly is proving to be an exciting discovery on the wing. However, the line between boldness and recklessness is very thin in the demanding final stages of the season.
The Premier League is heading towards its conclusion with a relentless display of attacking football. With the "handbrake" released, fans can expect crazy goal-scoring chases, where even a single goal against a smaller team could decide the fate of an entire historic season.
