Risk of drought in spring crop production 2016

(Baonghean) - The entire province is preparing for the 2016 spring crop. This is the main production season of the year with over 85,000 hectares of rice, over 12,000 hectares of corn, about 22,000 hectares of peanuts, 24,000 hectares of sugarcane, and some other crops.

Planting spring rice in Hung Nguyen

In recent years, Nghe An province has experienced increasingly intense heat, with temperatures rising significantly, the number of days with severe cold spells decreasing, and rainfall even during the rainy season (from the end of August to the end of October each year) also sharply reduced, resulting in very few storms and floods. Agricultural production in the spring of 2016 is predicted to face many major difficulties.

It will be a warmer spring than in previous years.

The forecast for the spring of 2016 predicts a warm spring with air temperatures higher than the multi-year average, possibly even higher than the spring of 2015. If the air temperatures unfold as predicted, the spring of 2016 will face several disadvantages for agricultural production, namely: Shorter growing periods for crops, especially rice and corn. The extent of this shortening will depend on the air temperature on each day and throughout the spring (from January to March).

Specifically, shortening the rice growing season can easily lead to premature flowering, and encountering cold weather during the Qingming Festival can severely reduce rice yield, even resulting in total crop failure. A warm spring also leads to a surge in pests and diseases (blast, brown spot, leaf roller, brown planthopper, stem borer, etc.).

Production is facing severe drought.

The total rainfall from January to September 2015 reached only 1,046.15 mm, 219.35 mm lower than the average rainfall for the first nine months of the year and 193.41 mm lower than the first nine months of 2014. In Nghe An province, the rainy season is concentrated from the end of August to the end of October each year. September is the month with the highest average rainfall of the year (approximately 520-550 mm). However, the average rainfall in September this year was only 334.96 mm, equivalent to 64-65% of the average September rainfall in previous years. According to the Meteorological and Hydrological Department's forecast, the rainfall for the remaining three months of 2015 will be negligible.

Therefore, the water reserves in the province's 625 large and small reservoirs and dams currently do not reach 80% or more of their designed capacity. According to statistics, only 14 reservoirs and dams in the province have water reserves exceeding 70% of their designed capacity, 5 reservoirs and dams have water reserves between 50-70% of their designed capacity, 28 reservoirs and dams have water reserves below 50% of their designed capacity, and the remaining reservoirs and dams have negligible water reserves. While the water levels in these reservoirs and dams are as described, the water in the Lam River, which provides gravity irrigation for the Dien-Yen-Quynh area and for the Nam-Hung-Nghi electric pumping area, has consistently remained lower than the average for the same period by 38-203 mm and lower than the same period in 2014 by 18-93 cm. The current water reserves in reservoirs and dams, as well as the water flow in the Lam River, are a cause for concern for the 2016 spring crop production.

The likelihood of rain and even storms in the coming days is very low. This is because El Niño is currently active off the coast of the Pacific Ocean from June 2015 to the end of March 2016, significantly affecting the central and Central Highlands provinces of Vietnam.

Therefore, to achieve high yields in the 2016 spring crop, localities and farmers need to proactively implement the following measures:

First, survey and zone the areas where irrigation is likely to be available in terms of hectares, and determine which areas are not. Based on this, proactively plan specific production for each crop. Absolutely do not plant rice if there is truly no reliable irrigation source. In such areas, boldly switch to planting corn, beans, or peanuts. All three crops should be planted as early as possible to prevent and mitigate drought, air pollution, and the early arrival of the Lao wind.

Secondly, in areas with a reliable irrigation system, rice cultivation is permitted. However, only short-day rice varieties with a growth period of no more than 135 days should be planted to reduce the number of irrigations, limit pests and diseases, and ensure that these varieties have a relatively high yield, good rice quality, are less susceptible to pests and diseases, and have wide adaptability.

Each hamlet, village, or commune should only cultivate 2-3 rice varieties, with each variety planted in a concentrated area to facilitate planting, care, and pest and disease control.

Third, use irrigation water very sparingly, especially water in areas with lakes, dams, and areas with electric pumps. In these areas, only shallow irrigation or regular shallow irrigation (water level of 3-5 cm) is needed. Deep flooding of the fields restricts rice tillering, wastes water, and weakens the rice plants.

Fourth, due to the possibility of warm weather, high temperatures, and little rain in the spring, early and concentrated fertilization is necessary, mainly applying a heavy base fertilizer before transplanting to promote rapid rice growth, early tillering, and concentrated tillering. At the same time, only NPK 16.16.8 fertilizer should be used for base fertilization at approximately 13-15 kg/sao, and NPK 15.5.20 fertilizer should be used for topdressing during tillering at 8-10 kg/sao and for panicle initiation at 5-7 kg/sao. Farmers should avoid using single fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium separately) as this can lead to unbalanced fertilization and reduce rice yield.

In warm spring years, spring rice crops are very susceptible to early-season blast disease, brown planthopper, small leaf-rolling caterpillar, and stem borer, which thrive in March and April. These pests and diseases need to be monitored regularly, in conjunction with forecasts from the plant protection sector, to ensure timely early detection and immediate spraying of pesticides upon appearance.

Doan Tri Tue