Ajax vs Groningen Prediction - Eredivisie, 23:45, May 21, 2026

The match between Ajax and Groningen, taking place at 23:45 on May 21, 2026, at Kras Stadion, is of crucial importance in the Eredivisie classification race this season. Currently, Ajax is maintaining its position in the leading group while Groningen is striving to close the gap on European cup qualification spots.

Current league position and form

Ajax are currently 5th in the league table with 56 points after 34 matches. Their form in their last 5 games includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Ajax's strength lies primarily in their home form, where they have secured 9 wins since the start of the season.

Groningen currently sits in 9th place with 48 points. The away team has been relatively consistent with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Notably, Groningen is a team capable of causing upsets away from home, having won 7 away games this season.

Head-to-head history and goal statistics

In their last five encounters, Ajax have held the advantage with three wins and one draw. However, in their most recent meeting in March 2026, Groningen secured a convincing 3-1 victory.

• Ajax:They average 1.8 goals per game and concede 1.2 goals per game.
• Groningen:They average 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.3 goals per game.

History of the last 5 head-to-head matches

• March 7, 2026: Groningen 3 - 1 Ajax
• December 2, 2025: Ajax 2 - 0 Groningen
• May 15, 2025: Groningen 2 - 2 Ajax
• October 6, 2024: Ajax 3 - 1 Groningen
• May 16, 2023: Groningen 2 - 3 Ajax

Team situation and expected lineup

Ajax, the home team, is facing a serious personnel crisis, particularly in defense and midfield. Meanwhile, Groningen is also missing several key players due to long-term injuries.

Absent list

• Ajax:O. Edvardsen (absent), K. Fitz-Jim (shoulder injury), V. Jaros (knee injury), O. Zinchenko (knee injury). The availability of J. Sutalo and O. Wijndal remains uncertain.
• Groningen:S. Resink (knee injury), O. Zawada (hand injury). D. van der Werff is recovering and his availability is uncertain.

Analysis and prediction of results

With home advantage and a superior squad, Ajax is predicted to have a 45% chance of winning. However, the probability of a draw is also very high (45%) due to the capital team's personnel losses. Groningen only has about a 10% chance of winning this match, but they could still come away with a point if they take advantage of their opponent's personnel shortages.

The match is expected to be tight, with fewer than 2.5 goals scored by each team. The safest bet for this encounter is for Ajax to win or draw.

Team lineup updated at 23:30 on May 21, 2026

Official lineup

Ajax

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachOscar Garcia Junyent

Starting lineup:

• 26. Maarten Paes (G)
• 3. Anton Gaaei (D)
• 30. Aaron Bouwman (D)
• 15. Youri Baas (D)
• 2. Lucas Rosa (D)
• 48. Sean Steur (M)
• 24. Jorthy Mokio (M)
• 18. Davy Klaassen (M)
• 23. Steven Berghuis (F)
• 25. Wout Weghorst (F)
• 11. Mika Godts (F)

Substitutes:

• 52. Paul Reverson
• 58. Valentijn van der Velde
• 45. Ryan van de Pavert
• 64. Kennynho Kasanwirjo
• 32. Takehiro Tomiyasu
• 50. Marvyn Muzungu
• 6. Youri Regeer
• 7. Maher Carrizo
• 43. Rayane Bounida
• 10. Oscar Gloukh
• 9. Kasper Dolberg
• 19. Don-Angelo Konadu

Groningen

Diagram: 4-2-3-1

CoachDick Lukkien

Starting lineup:

• 1. Etienne Vaessen (G)
• 5. Marco Rente (D)
• 3. Thijmen Blokzijl (D)
• 4. Dies Janse (D)
• 43. Marvin Peersman (D)
• 18. Tygo Land (M)
• 8. Tika de Jonge (M)
• 7. Travis Hernes (M)
• 17. David van der Werff (M)
• 14. Jorg Schreuders (M)
• 26. Thom van Bergen (F)

Substitutes:

• 13. Lovro Štubljar
• 21. Hidde Jurjus
• 22. Sven Bouland
• 48. Robin Kelder
• 2. Wouter Prints
• 16. Tyrique Mercera
• 15. Elvis Van der Laan
• 20. Mats Seuntjens
• 44. Jismerai Dillema
• 34. Ryan Metu
• 27. Rui Mendes
• 9. Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson