AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction - Serie A

2:45 AM, December 30th - Stadio Olimpico

AS Roma will host Genoa in a match of crucial importance to both teams' ambitions in Serie A. While the capital club needs a win to close the gap on Champions League qualification spots, Genoa are hovering just above the relegation zone and desperate for points to maintain their hopes of staying in the league.

Ranking position and realistic goals

After 16 matches played, AS Roma currently sits in 5th place in the league table with 30 points. The Rome-based team has recorded 10 wins and 6 losses since the start of the season. With a relatively small gap to the leading group, securing three points at home is a mandatory task for the team at the Olimpico Stadium.

In contrast, Genoa is having a turbulent season. They are ranked 17th with 14 points, having won only 3, drawn 5, and suffered 8 defeats. Their goal difference of -8 (16 goals scored, 24 goals conceded) reflects the looseness of their defense, which has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game.

Performance analysis: A stark contrast.

AS Roma's form in their last five matches has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses. However, their defense remains a strong point, having conceded only 10 goals in 16 matches (an average of 0.6 goals per game), the best record among the top teams. Roma's weakness lies in their attack, with a scoring efficiency of only 1.1 goals per game.

On the opposite side, Genoa has shown slight signs of improvement with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 league matches. However, their away record is not particularly impressive, with only 2 wins in 16 away games this season.

History of confrontation and psychological warfare

History is on the home side. In their last five encounters, AS Roma have won three, drawn one, and lost only one match against Genoa. Their most recent clash on January 18, 2025, ended with a 3-1 victory for the home team. The Olimpico stadium is always a huge morale boost for Roma when hosting opponents in the lower half of the table.

Team situation: Difficulties surround the home team.

AS Roma entered this match with a long list of absentees. Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini and star striker Artem Dovbyk were both absent due to thigh and muscle injuries. In addition, the absence of Evan Ndicka and N. El Aynaoui due to international duty would significantly impact the home team's defense and midfield.

Genoa are in a similar predicament, with goalkeeper Nicola Leali serving a suspension after receiving a red card. Furthermore, a number of players, including Junior Messias, M. Thorsby, and B. Siegrist, are doubtful due to various injuries.

Tactical analysis and prediction

Despite having a depleted squad, AS Roma is still considered the favorite due to their pragmatic playing style and ability to control the game well at home. Experts predict Roma has a 45% chance of winning, equivalent to a draw, while Genoa's chances of winning are only 10%.

The match is likely to be a tight affair with few goals (under 2.5 goals per team). With Roma's solid defense, Genoa will find it very difficult to find a way to score against the home team.

Predicted result:AS Roma win or draw.

Team lineup updated at 02:25 on 30/12/2025

Official lineup

AS Roma

Diagram: 3-4-2-1

CoachPiero Gasperini Gian

Starting lineup:

• 99. Mile Svilar (G)
• 24. Jan Ziółkowski (D)
• 23. Gianluca Mancini (D)
• 22. Mario Hermoso (D)
• 19. Zeki Çelik (M)
• 4. Bryan Cristante (M)
• 17. Manu Koné (M)
• 43. Wesley (M)
• 18. Matías Soulé (F)
• 21. Paulo Dybala (F)
• 11. Evan Ferguson (F)

Substitutes:

• 32. Devis Vásquez
• 95. Pierluigi Gollini
• 2. Devyne Rensch
• 76. Jacopo Mirra
• 87. Daniele Ghilardi
• 12. Konstantinos Tsimikas
• 61. Niccolò Pisilli
• 3. Angeliño
• 60. Alessandro Romano
• 92. Stephan El Shaarawy
• 9. Artem Dovbyk

net

Diagram: 3-5-2

CoachDaniele De Rossi

Starting lineup:

• 39. Daniele Sommariva (G)
• 5. Leo Østigård (D)
• 34. Sebastian Otoa (D)
• 22. Johan Vásquez (D)
• 15. Brooke Norton-Cuffy (M)
• 17. Ruslan Malinovskyi (M)
• 32. Morten Frendrop (M)
• 77. Mikael Ellertsson (M)
• 3. Aarón Martín (M)
• 9. Vitinha (F)
• 18. Caleb Ekuban (F)

Substitutes:

• 35. Ernestas Lysionok
• 98. Rendijs Mihelsons
• 20. Stefano Sabelli
• 27. Alessandro Marcandalli
• 2. Morten Thorsby
• 76. Lorenzo Venturino
• 73. Patrizio Masini
• 8. Nicolae Stanciu
• 40. Seydou Fini
• 23. Valentín Carboni
• 30. Hugo Cuenca
• 21. Jeff Ekhator
• 29. Lorenzo Colombo