Aston Villa vs Leeds Prediction - Premier League: Consolidating Top 3 Position

The next round of the Premier League will see Aston Villa and Leeds clash at Villa Park. The match takes place at 10:00 PM on February 21, 2026. The home team is in excellent form and determined to chase the title, while the visitors are still struggling to find stability in the lower half of the table.

Dominant position at the top of the rankings.

Aston Villa are having a fantastic season, sitting firmly in third place with 50 points after 26 matches. In contrast, Leeds are in 15th place with 30 points, just a safe distance from the relegation zone. Here's a summary of the statistics for both teams:

Performance analysis: Home advantage versus away game concerns

Aston Villa are turning Villa Park into a veritable fortress. Of their 15 wins this season, nine have come at home. With an average of 1.4 goals per game and a defense that has conceded only 1.0 goal per game, the Birmingham team demonstrates excellent balance across all lines.

On the other side of the pitch, Leeds have shown a weak performance whenever they play away from home. They have only managed one away win this season. Leeds' defense is a major problem, having conceded 45 goals (an average of 1.7 goals per game), making them one of the teams with the weakest defenses in the league.

The history of their rivalry heavily favors one side.

Statistics from the last five encounters show a clear dominance by the home team at Villa Park. Aston Villa have won four matches and drawn only one against Leeds. Notably, in their most recent meeting in November 2025, Villa triumphed 2-1 at Leeds' home ground.

• November 23, 2025: Leeds 1 - 2 Aston Villa
• January 14, 2023: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leeds
• October 2, 2022: Leeds 0 - 0 Aston Villa
• July 17, 2022: Aston Villa 1 - 0 Leeds
• March 11, 2022: Leeds 0 - 3 Aston Villa

Team news: Personnel issues for the home team.

Despite being considered the stronger team, Aston Villa are facing a serious personnel crisis in midfield. Their list of absentees includes:

• M. Bizot:Absent due to a red card.
• B. Kamara:Knee injury.
• J. McGinn:Knee injury.
• Y. Tielemans:Ankle injury.
• Alysson and A. Garcia:His availability for the match is still uncertain due to collisions and muscle injuries.

On Leeds' side, they are only missing one player:N. OkaforDue to injuries, this allows the visiting team to field a nearly full-strength squad to cope with the pressure at Villa Park.

Match prediction

Based on home advantage and a dominant head-to-head record, Aston Villa is still considered the favorite with a predicted win probability of 45%, equal to the probability of a draw. Leeds only have a 10% chance of causing an upset.

Assessment:The match is likely to end with a favorable result for the home team. The safest bet for this match is for Aston Villa to win or draw (Double chance).

Team lineup updated at 21:30 on February 21, 2026.

Official lineup

Aston Villa

Diagram: 4-2-3-1

CoachUnai Emery

Starting lineup:

• 23. Emiliano Martínez (G)
• 2. Matty Cash (D)
• 4. Ezri Konsa (D)
• 5. Tyrone Mings (D)
• 22. Ian Maatsen (D)
• 21. Douglas Luiz (M)
• 24. Amadou Onana (M)
• 31. Leon Bailey (M)
• 27. Morgan Rogers (M)
• 10. Emiliano Buendía (M)
• 11. Ollie Watkins (F)

Substitutes:

• 64. James Wright
• 3. Victor Lindelöf
• 12. Lucas Digne
• 14. Pau Torres
• 26. Lamare Bogarde
• 16. Andrés García
• 6. Ross Barkley
• 19. Jadon Sancho
• 18. Tammy Abraham

Leeds

Diagram: 5-4-1

CoachDaniel Farke

Starting lineup:

• 26. Karl Darlow (G)
• 24. James Justin (D)
• 4. Ethan Ampadu (D)
• 5. Pascal Struijk (D)
• 6. Joe Rodon (D)
• 3. Gabriel Gudmundsson (D)
• 2. Jayden Bogle (M)
• 44. Ilia Gruev (M)
• 18. Anton Stach (M)
• 11. Brendan Aaronson (M)
• 9. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Lucas Perri
• 23. Sebastiaan Bornauw
• 15. Jaka Bijol
• 8. Sean Longstaff
• 22. Tanaka Pond
• 7. Daniel James
• 29. Wilfried Gnonto
• 14. Lukas Nmecha
• 10. Joël Piroe