Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Prediction - La Liga
Atletico Madrid aim to consolidate their position in the top four when they host Alaves at their Metropolitano 'fortress', where Diego Simeone's team has maintained an unbeaten record since the start of the season.
10:15 PM on January 18th - La Liga Round
The clash between Atletico Madrid and Alaves at the Metropolitano Stadium is crucial for the ambitions of both teams. While the home side needs points to keep pace with the leaders, Alaves is struggling in a tough relegation battle.
Current league position and form
Currently, Atletico Madrid is ranked 4th in the league table with 38 points after 19 matches played. Conversely, Alaves is ranked 17th with only 19 points, just above the relegation zone.
| Team | Location | Point | Form (last 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 4 | 38 | 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses |
| Alives | 17 | 19 | Win 1, Draw 1, Loss 3 |
The power from the 'sacred ground' of Metropolitano
Atletico Madrid are turning their Metropolitano stadium into a veritable fortress this season. Of their 11 wins so far this season, 8 have come at home. Notably, Diego Simeone's team remains undefeated at home (8 wins, 1 draw).
Atletico's defense has maintained its usual discipline, conceding an average of only 0.9 goals per game. With a scoring efficiency of 1.8 goals per game, the Madrid team possesses the necessary balance to impose their playing style on weaker opponents.
The ultimate challenge for Alaves
In contrast to the home team's impressive form, Alaves are showing a weak performance whenever they play away. They have lost 7 out of 9 away games this season and only managed one victory. Their limited attacking ability, with an average of 0.8 goals per game, remains an unresolved problem for the Basque team.
History of confrontations and forces
In their last five encounters, the results have been fairly balanced, with each team having their own moments of brilliance. However, Atletico Madrid still holds the advantage in matches at the Metropolitano. The most recent meeting in August 2025 ended in a 1-1 draw.
In terms of strength:
- Atletico Madrid:C. Lenglet is absent due to a knee injury.
- Alaves:F. Garces is suspended, and L. Boye's availability (muscle injury) remains uncertain. M. Diarra, M. Diaz, and N. Maras may also be absent, depending on the coaching staff's decision.
Expert opinion
Based on the statistics, Atletico Madrid is predicted to have a 45% chance of winning and a 45% chance of the match ending in a draw. Alaves only has a 10% chance of causing an upset in Madrid.
With the advantage of playing at home and a higher-quality squad, Atletico Madrid are expected to control the game. Alaves will likely play defensively in search of a draw, but the pressure from the home team's strikers could cause their defense to collapse.
Team lineup updated at 21:38 on 18/01/2026
Official lineup
Atletico Madrid
Diagram: 4-4-2
CoachDiego Simeone
Starting lineup:
- 13. Jan Oblak (G)
- 14. Marcos Llorente (D)
- 18. Marc Pubill (D)
- 17. David Hanko (D)
- 3. Matteo Ruggeri (D)
- 20. Giuliano Simeone (M)
- 5. Johnny Cardoso (M)
- 8. Pablo Barrios (M)
- 11. Thiago Almada (M)
- 9. Alexander Sørloth (F)
- 19. Julián Alvarez (F)
Substitutes:
- 31. Salvador Esquivel
- 1. Juan Musso
- 2. José María Giménez
- 16. Nahuel Molina
- 24. Robin Le Normand
- 10. Alejandro Baena
- 6. Koke
- 29. Rayane Belaid
- 27. Jano Monserrate
- 7. Antoine Griezmann
Alives
Diagram: 4-1-4-1
CoachEduardo Coudet
Starting lineup:
- 1. Antonio Sivera (G)
- 17. Jonny Otto (D)
- 14. Nahuel Tenaglia (D)
- 5. Jon Pacheco (D)
- 24. Victor Parada (D)
- 8. Antonio Blanco (M)
- 7. Carlos Vicente (M)
- 18. Jon Guridi (M)
- 19. Pablo Ibáñez (M)
- 10. Carles Aleñá (M)
- 11. Toni Martínez (F)
Substitutes:
- 13. Raúl Fernández
- 4. Denis Suárez
- 3. Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim
- 21. Abderrahman Rebecca
- 23. Carlos Benavidez
- 6. Ander Guevara
- 20. Calebe Gonçalves
- 15. Lucas Boyé
- 34. Aitor Mañas
