AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction - Pressure at AFAS Stadion

At 00:45 on January 22, 2026, AZ Alkmaar will host Excelsior at the AFAS Stadion. The match takes place as both teams desperately need points to improve their position in the Eredivisie standings this season.

Current ranking position

Currently, AZ Alkmaar is temporarily ranked 8th with 28 points after 18 rounds. Meanwhile, the visiting team Excelsior is in 14th place with 20 points, only a not-too-safe distance from the relegation zone.

Analysis of form and team statistics

AZ Alkmaar: Seeking stability at home.

Despite their less-than-impressive form in their last five matches, with three defeats, AZ Alkmaar still proves to be a formidable opponent when playing at AFAS Stadion. In their last 18 matches, they have secured eight wins, half of which came at home. AZ Alkmaar's scoring performance is fairly consistent, averaging 1.8 goals per game; however, their defense is a cause for concern, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game.

Excelsior: The ultimate challenge in a foreign land

Excelsior is experiencing a turbulent season with 10 losses in 18 matches. Their away form is quite weak, with only 2 wins on the road since the start of the season. With an average of 1.9 goals conceded per game, Excelsior's defense will face tremendous pressure from the home team's strikers.

A history of overwhelming confrontations.

The statistics from the head-to-head history completely favor AZ Alkmaar. In the last 5 encounters, AZ Alkmaar has won 4 times and drawn only 1. Notably, these victories were by huge margins, such as 8-0 in July 2024 and 4-0 in March 2024. This creates a huge psychological barrier for the Excelsior players on this away trip.

• 07/13/2024: AZ Alkmaar 8 - 0 Excelsior
• March 10, 2024: AZ Alkmaar 4 - 0 Excelsior
• November 5, 2023: Excelsior 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar
• February 11, 2023: AZ Alkmaar 5 - 0 Excelsior
• January 12, 2023: Excelsior 1 - 4 AZ Alkmaar

Team situation and tactical predictions

AZ Alkmaar is facing a difficult personnel situation. Captain Jordy Clasie is absent due to an ankle injury, a significant loss for the midfield. In addition, D. Kasius and M. Meerdink (groin injuries) are also certain to be absent. S. Mijnans' participation remains uncertain. Conversely, Excelsior has its strongest squad available with no reported injuries.

Based on in-depth analysis, AZ Alkmaar is rated as having a 45% chance of winning, equivalent to a draw, while the away team's chance is only 10%. With the home team's attacking strength and the visitors' weak defense, the match is predicted to have more than 1.5 goals.

Predicted result:AZ Alkmaar win or draw.

Team lineup updated at 00:08 on January 22, 2026

Official lineup

AZ Alkmaar

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachMaarten Martens

Starting lineup:

• 41. Jeroen Zoet (G)
• 22. Elijah Dijkstra (D)
• 3. Wouter Goes (D)
• 5. Alexandre Penetra (D)
• 34. Mees de Wit (D)
• 20. Kasper Boogaard (M)
• 26. Kees Smith (M)
• 6. Peer Koopmeiners (M)
• 7. Wesley Patati (F)
• 9. Troy Parrott (F)
• 17. Isak Steiner Jensen (F)

Substitutes:

• 31. Daniel Deen
• 12. Hobie Verhulst
• 23. Billy van Duijl
• 15. Mateo Chávez
• 4. Maxim Dekker
• 2. Seiya Maikuma
• 11. Ibrahim Sadiq
• 33. Matěj Šín
• 24. Ayoub Oufkir
• 56. Rio Robbemond
• 27. Ro-Zangelo Daal
• 19. Jizz Hornkamp

Excelsior

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachRuben den Uil

Starting lineup:

• 1. Stijn van Gassel (G)
• 2. Ilias Bronkhorst (D)
• 4. Casper Widell (D)
• 3. Rick Meissen (D)
• 12. Arthur Zagre (D)
• 23. Irakli Yegoian (M)
• 10. Noah Naujoks (M)
• 14. Lewis Schouten (M)
• 30. Derensili Sanches Fernandes (F)
• 33. Jerolldino Bergraaf (F)
• 7. Emil Hansson (F)

Substitutes:

• 16. Calvin Raatsie
• 5. Stan Henderikx
• 15. Simon Janssen
• 20. Lennard Hartjes
• 11. Gyan de Regt
• 26. Miliano Jonathans
• 18. Chris-Kévin Nadje
• 6. Adam Carlén
• 25. Stijn Middendorp
• 17. Nolan Martens
• 29. Mike van Dunen