Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction - Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund are aiming to extend their five-game winning streak as they host a struggling FSV Mainz 05 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
The match between Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 will take place at 02:30 on February 14, 2026, as part of Round 22 of the Bundesliga. With their second-place position and impressive form, the home team holds every advantage to solidify their position in the title race.
The SIGNAL IDUNA PARK fortress and its destructive power.
Borussia Dortmund are having a sensational season, currently sitting second in the league table with 48 points. Their biggest advantage is their home ground, SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, where Dortmund have remained unbeaten since the start of the season with 8 wins and 2 draws. The home team boasts an impressive scoring record, averaging 2.0 goals per game, while their defense has only conceded 1.0 goal per game.
Dortmund's recent form has been extremely impressive, with a streak of five consecutive wins in the Bundesliga. This consistency gives them confidence despite the absence of several key players from the starting lineup. The Ruhr team has only lost one match after 21 rounds, a testament to the character of a title contender.
FSV Mainz 05 and the personnel crisis.
Conversely, FSV Mainz 05 are currently in 14th place with 21 points. Despite commendable efforts, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, this away game presents a significant challenge. Statistics show that Mainz have not performed well away from home, having only won 2 out of 10 away games this season.
The visitors' difficulties are compounded by a staggering eight-player injury list. Key players such as goalkeeper Robin Zentner, defender Anthony Caci, and striker Brajan Hollerbach are all certain to be absent. Losing this crucial element of the squad will leave Mainz's defense, already conceding 1.6 goals per game, more vulnerable than ever.
Balance of power and head-to-head statistics
| Team | Location | Point | Form in the last 5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 48 | win 5 consecutive matches |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 14 | 21 | Win 4 matches, lose 1 match |
Historically, in their last five encounters, Dortmund have won two, drawn one, and lost two. However, in the first leg, which took place in September 2025, Dortmund easily defeated their opponent 2-0 away from home.
In terms of personnel, Dortmund will be without Emre Can (groin injury), Filippo Mane (thigh injury), and center-back Nico Schlotterbeck due to suspension. The availability of Karim Adeyemi and Marcel Sabitzer remains uncertain. However, compared to Mainz's eight-player absence, Dortmund still possesses superior squad depth to implement their tactics.
Match prediction
Based on statistical indicators, Borussia Dortmund has a much higher chance of winning. With home advantage and a quality squad, the home team is predicted to control the game from the start. A draw is also a possible scenario if Mainz chooses a defensive approach, but securing three points remains entirely within reach for Dortmund.
