Brighton vs Bournemouth Prediction - Premier League: Amex Stadium as the home advantage
Brighton aim to secure all three points against Bournemouth in the 22nd round of the Premier League, taking advantage of their opponent's weak defense and home advantage at the Amex Stadium.
3:00 AM, January 20th - Premier League Round 22
The clash between Brighton and Bournemouth at the Amex Stadium is crucial in reshaping the mid-table. While the home side Brighton are looking to maintain consistency to close the gap on the top teams, Bournemouth are struggling with defensive issues and poor away form.
Current league position and form
Brighton currently sit 12th with 29 points after 21 matches. Their form in their last five games is one win, three draws, and one loss. The biggest advantage for Brighton's team is their home ground, Amex Stadium, where they have only lost one match since the start of the season. With five wins and four draws at their home stadium, Brighton have shown they are an extremely difficult opponent to beat when supported by their home crowd.
Conversely, Bournemouth are currently ranked 15th with 26 points. The 3-point gap to their rivals could be closed, but their current form doesn't favor the visitors. In their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have only won 1, drawn 2, and lost 2. Notably, "The Cherries'" away record is alarming, with 5 losses and only 1 victory away from Dean Court.
Comparison of statistics and goal-scoring performance
| Index | Brighton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Number of matches played | 21 | 21 |
| Goals scored | 31 (1.5 goals/match) | 34 (1.6 goals/match) |
| Conceded goal | 28 (1.3 goals/match) | 40 (1.9 goals/match) |
| Difference | +3 | -6 |
Despite having a slightly better goal-scoring record (1.6 compared to 1.5), Bournemouth's defense is a fatal weakness. Conceding an average of nearly 2 goals per game leaves them constantly in a risky chasing position. Brighton, with their more controlled style of play and a more solid defense (only conceding 1.3 goals per game), promises to exploit these vulnerabilities to the fullest.
History of confrontation and psychological warfare
In their last five encounters, Brighton have held a slight advantage with three wins compared to Bournemouth's two. Their most recent meeting was in September 2025, where Bournemouth won 2-1 at home. However, Bournemouth often struggle when traveling to the Amex, as evidenced by their recent 1-3 and 1-2 defeats there.
Team situation: A headache due to injuries.
Both teams are facing lengthy injury lists, particularly in key positions:
- Brighton:We are without S. March, S. Tzimas, and A. Webster due to knee injuries. M. Wieffer is also unavailable due to a toe injury.
- Bournemouth:The list of absentees is even more extensive with T. Adams, J. Kluivert (knee), M. Akinmboni (muscle), W. Dennis (ankle), B. Doak (hamstring), and E. Unal. D. Brooks's availability remains uncertain.
Tactical analysis and predictions
Brighton are considered the significantly stronger team, with a 90% chance of winning or drawing (including a 45% chance of an absolute victory). With Bournemouth missing several key players across all three lines and their defense being shaky, Brighton are likely to proactively push forward from the start to impose their style of play.
The match is predicted to have at least two goals based on the scoring performance of both teams. A positive result for the home team Brighton at Amex Stadium is the most likely scenario in the current circumstances.
Forecast:Brighton win or draw.
Team lineup updated at 02:23 on 20/01/2026
Official lineup
Brighton
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachFabian Hurzeler
Starting lineup:
- 1. Bart Verbruggen (G)
- 34. Joël Veltman (D)
- 6. Jan Paul van Hecke (D)
- 5. Lewis Dunk (D)
- 24. Ferdi Kadıoğlu (D)
- 13. Jack Hinshelwood (M)
- 30. Pascal Groß (M)
- 25. Diego Gómez (M)
- 8. Brajan Gruda (M)
- 22. Kaoru Mitoma (M)
- 18. Danny Welbeck (F)
Substitutes:
- 23. Jason Steele
- 21. Olivier Boscagli
- 42. Diego Coppola
- 10. Georginio Rutter
- 11. Yankuba Minteh
- 17. Carlos Baleba
- 19. Charalampos Kostoulas
- 20. James Milner
- 26. Yasin Ayari
Bournemouth
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachAndoni Iraola
Starting lineup:
- 1. Dorde Petrović (G)
- 20. Álex Jiménez (D)
- 23. James Hill (D)
- 5. Marcos Senesi (D)
- 3. Adrien Truffert (D)
- 4. Lewis Cook (M)
- 8. Alex Scott (M)
- 21. Amine Adli (M)
- 16. Marcus Tavernier (M)
- 22. Eli Junior Kroupi (M)
- 9. Evanilson (F)
Substitutes:
- 17. Fraser Forest
- 44. Veljko Milosavljević
- 15. Adam Smith
- 18. Bafodé Diakité
- 10. Ryan Christie
- 53. Charlie Stevens
- 51. Malcolm Dacosta
- 49. Dominic Sadi
- 50. Remy Rees-Dottin
