Burnley vs Brighton Prediction - Premier League
Brighton are looking to consolidate their position in the top 10 as they travel to Turf Moor to face a Burnley side plagued by personnel problems and facing the threat of relegation.
The match between Burnley and Brighton will take place at 9:00 PM on April 11, 2026, as part of the Premier League. This is a crucial clash for the home team, Burnley, as they are struggling at the bottom of the table, while Brighton maintains a stable position in the upper half of the table.
League position and match context
Currently, Brighton are in 10th place with 43 points after 31 rounds. Graham Potter's team (or his successor) has a positive goal difference (+4) and maintains their characteristic possession-based style of play. Conversely, Burnley are in 19th place, second to last, with only 20 points. The safety zone is gradually slipping away from Burnley's team with only a few rounds remaining in the season.
Form and in-depth statistics
Brighton are in incredibly impressive form recently, with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Since the start of the season, they have achieved 11 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses. Brighton's scoring efficiency is 1.3 goals per game, while their defense has only conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game. Notably, Brighton have performed quite well away from home with 4 wins and 4 draws.
In stark contrast, Burnley are mired in crisis with a terrible run of form: they haven't won a single game in their last five matches (two draws, three losses). In a total of 31 games played this season, Burnley have only managed four wins, while suffering 19 defeats. Their defense is their Achilles' heel, having conceded 61 goals (an average of 2.0 goals per game), while their attack has only scored 33 goals.
History of clashes between Burnley and Brighton
Looking at the history of the last 5 encounters, the advantage is slightly in favor of Brighton. Specifically:
- January 3, 2026: Brighton 2 - 0 Burnley
- April 13, 2024: Burnley 1 - 1 Brighton
- December 9, 2023: Brighton 1 - 1 Brighton
- February 19, 2022: Brighton 0 - 3 Burnley
- August 14, 2021: Burnley 1 - 2 Brighton
This record shows that Brighton regularly earn points when facing Burnley, especially the convincing 2-0 victory in their most recent encounter earlier this year.
Severe staffing crisis at Turf Moor
The challenge for Burnley is compounded by their growing injury list. The home side will be missing a number of key players, including: Z. Amdouni (knee injury), J. Beyer (hamstring injury), J. Cullen (knee injury), H. Mejbri (hamstring injury), C. Roberts (muscle injury), and M. Tresor Ndayishimiye (ankle injury). In particular, J. Laurent will be absent due to a direct red card, leaving a significant void in the midfield.
On the other side of the pitch, Brighton will also be without their captain, L. Dunk, due to accumulating too many yellow cards. Additionally, S. Tzimas and A. Webster will be unavailable due to knee injuries. However, compared to Burnley, Brighton's squad depth is still considered far superior.
Analysis and prediction of results
Based on current form and squad strength, Brighton are the clear favorites. With a 90% probability of a win or draw (45% win, 45% draw), Brighton are almost certain to get points at Turf Moor. Burnley only have a 10% chance of winning, even if they pull off a real upset.
The match is predicted to be low-scoring for the home team, while Brighton may exploit Burnley's defensive personnel shortages to score. A safe bet for experts is a draw or a win for Brighton.
| Team | Location | Point | form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 10 | 43 | Wins 4, Loss 1 |
| Burnley | 19 | 20 | Draw 2, Loss 3 |
Team lineup updated at 20:30 on April 11, 2026
Official lineup
Burnley
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachScott Parker
Starting lineup:
- 1. Martin Dubravka (G)
- 12. Bashir Humphreys (D)
- 18. Hjalmar Ekdal (D)
- 5. Maxime Estève (D)
- 3. Quilindschy Hartman (D)
- 20. James Ward-Prowse (M)
- 16. Florentino Luís (M)
- 10. Marcus Edwards (M)
- 8. Lesley Ugochukwu (M)
- 11. Jaidon Anthony (M)
- 19. Zian Flemming (F)
Substitutes:
- 2. Kyle Walker
- 4. Joe Worrall
- 7. Jacob Bruun Larsen
- 9. Lyle Foster
- 17. Loum Tchaouna
- 23. Lucas Pires
- 27. Armando Broja
- 31. Mike Trésor
- 13. Max Weiss
Brighton
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachFabian Hurzeler
Starting lineup:
- 1. Bart Verbruggen (G)
- 27. Mats Wieffer (D)
- 6. Jan Paul van Hecke (D)
- 21. Olivier Boscagli (D)
- 24. Ferdi Kadıoğlu (D)
- 26. Yasin Ayari (M)
- 30. Pascal Gross (M)
- 25. Diego Gómez (M)
- 13. Jack Hinshelwood (M)
- 11. Yankuba Minteh (M)
- 18. Danny Welbeck (F)
Substitutes:
- 23. Jason Steele
- 3. Igor Júlio
- 7. Solly March
- 10. Georginio Rutter
- 17. Carlos Baleba
- 19. Charalampos Kostoulas
- 22. Kaoru Mitoma
- 29. Maxim De Cuyper
- 34. Joël Veltman
