Everton vs Burnley Prediction - Premier League: Opportunity for the home team to take the lead
Everton host Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium aiming to consolidate their position in the top 10, while the visitors strive to escape the relegation zone with a depleted squad.
The next round of the Premier League sees a clash between Everton and Burnley, a match with a significant disparity in status. While the team at Hill Dickinson Stadium maintains a stable position in the upper half of the table, Burnley is struggling in a relegation battle with a leaky defense and a long injury list.
2:30 AM on March 4th - Match information at Hill Dickinson Stadium
The match between Everton and Burnley will take place at 2:30 AM on March 4th, 2026. This is a crucial point in the season, as every point is vital to each team's individual goals. Everton currently sits 8th in the league table with 40 points after 28 matches played. Conversely, Burnley is in 19th place with only 19 points, a significant distance from safety.
| Team | Location | Point | Form in the last 5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 8 | 40 | 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses |
| Burnley | 19 | 19 | 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses |
Everton and their goal is to consolidate their position.
Liverpool's Everton are having a relatively successful season, currently sitting in the top 10. After 28 rounds, Everton have secured 11 wins, 7 draws, and suffered 10 defeats. However, their home performance hasn't been particularly convincing, with only 4 wins out of 11 matches played so far this season.
In terms of gameplay, Everton maintained a fairly good balance with 32 goals scored and 33 goals conceded. Their average scoring rate of 1.1 goals per game shows they aren't a team with an explosive attack, but they are very resilient. Notably, the absence of J. Grealish due to a leg injury and C. Alcaraz will be significant losses for the coach's attacking options in this match.
Burnley and their defensive crisis.
On the other side of the pitch, Burnley are experiencing a turbulent season. With 17 defeats in 28 matches, the visitors are one of the biggest candidates for relegation. Burnley's biggest problem lies in their defense, having conceded 56 goals, an average of 2 goals per game.
Burnley's personnel situation is further complicated by the growing list of injured players. Key players such as Z. Amdouni, J. Cullen (knee injury), and J. Beyer (thigh injury) are certain to be absent. In addition, the availability of M. Edwards and A. Tuanzebe remains uncertain. With such a severely depleted squad, securing points at Hill Dickinson Stadium is considered an extremely difficult challenge for the visiting team.
The head-to-head history favors the home team.
Looking at the head-to-head history over the last 5 matches, Everton holds a clear advantage. The home team has won 3 matches, drawn 1, and lost only 1 against Burnley. Specifically:
- December 27, 2025: Burnley 0 - 0 Everton
- April 6, 2024: Everton 1 - 0 Burnley
- December 17, 2023: Burnley 0 - 2 Everton
- November 2, 2023: Everton 3 - 0 Burnley
- April 7, 2022: Burnley 3 - 2 Everton
Statistics show that in their last four meetings, Burnley have failed to score a single goal against Everton. This reflects the disparity in playing styles between the two teams.
Predictions and tactical analysis
Based on statistics and current squad situations, Everton are considered the clear favorites with a 90% chance of winning or drawing. The home team's chances of winning are estimated at 45%, equal to the probability of a draw (45%), while Burnley's chances of causing an upset are a mere 10%.
Given the pragmatic playing style of both teams, this match is predicted to be low-scoring. Both teams tend to score under 2.5 goals per game. Burnley will likely play defensively to limit goals conceded, while Everton will patiently look for weaknesses in their attacks down the flanks or from set pieces.
Predicted result:Everton will win or draw.
Team lineup updated at 02:00 on 04/03/2026
Official lineup
Everton
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachLeighton Baines
Starting lineup:
- 1. Jordan Pickford (G)
- 15. Jake O'Brien (D)
- 6. James Tarkowski (D)
- 32. Jarrad Branthwaite (D)
- 16. Vitaliy Mykolenko (D)
- 27. Idrissa Gueye (M)
- 37. James Garner (M)
- 7. Dwight McNeil (M)
- 22. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (M)
- 10. Iliman Ndiaye (M)
- 9. Beto (F)
Substitutes:
- 12. Mark Travers
- 2. Nathan Patterson
- 5. Michael Keane
- 45. Harrison Armstrong
- 20. Tyler Dibling
- 34. Merlin Röhl
- 42. Tim Iroegbunam
- 11. Thierno Barry
- 19. Tyrique George
Burnley
Diagram: 3-4-2-1
CoachScott Parker
Starting lineup:
- 1. Martin Dúbravka (G)
- 12. Bashir Humphreys (D)
- 4. Joe Worrall (D)
- 5. Maxime Estève (D)
- 2. Kyle Walker (M)
- 16. Florentino Luís (M)
- 8. Lesley Ugochukwu (M)
- 23. Lucas Pires (M)
- 28. Hannibal Mejbri (F)
- 11. Jaidon Anthony (F)
- 9. Lyle Foster (F)
Substitutes:
- 13. Max Weiss
- 3. Quilindschy Hartman
- 18. Hjalmar Ekdal
- 20. James Ward-Prowse
- 29. Josh Laurent
- 35. Ashley Barnes
- 52. Kian McMahon-Brown
- 7. Jacob Bruun Larsen
- 17. Loum Tchaouna
