FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction - Bundesliga

Match context

The Bundesliga relegation battle will heat up more than ever when FSV Mainz 05 host FC St. Pauli at the Mewa Arena at 9:30 PM on December 21, 2025. This is a direct clash between the two bottom-placed teams, where a victory could be crucial in the race to escape the relegation zone.

Currently, FSV Mainz 05 is in last place (18th) with only 7 points after 14 rounds. Meanwhile, FC St. Pauli is just above them in 16th place with 11 points. A favorable result would significantly improve the standings of either team.

Performance analysis

Both teams are going through a difficult period with alarming form.

FSV Mainz 05

The home team is mired in crisis, having failed to win in their last five matches, with three draws and two losses. Since the start of the season, they have only managed one victory in 14 games. Notably, Mainz 05's home record is extremely poor, with no wins at home (two draws, five losses). Their attack has only scored 13 goals, while their defense has conceded 26.

FC St. Pauli

On the visitors' side, the situation is no better. FC St. Pauli has only won 1 of their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 3 defeats. Their statistics after 14 matches are surprisingly similar to the home team: both have scored 13 goals and conceded 26. St. Pauli's away form is also a weakness, with only 1 win in their last 7 away games.

History of confrontations

Despite their poor form, history is entirely on FSV Mainz 05's side. In their last four encounters, the team from Mewa Arena has won every time against FC St. Pauli. This is a significant psychological advantage for Mainz 05 ahead of this crucial match.

• February 22, 2025: FSV Mainz 05 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli
• October 5, 2024: FC St. Pauli 0 - 3 FSV Mainz 05
• May 14, 2011: FSV Mainz 05 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli
• December 19, 2010: FC St. Pauli 2 - 4 FSV Mainz 05

Force situation

Both teams are facing significant personnel losses.

FSV Mainz 05

The home team will be without a number of key players due to injury, including A. Caci (thigh injury), M. Dal (knee injury), M. Leitsch (muscle injury), P. Mwene (muscle injury) and R. Zentner (groin injury).

FC St. Pauli

The visiting team also lacked their strongest squad as D. Nemeth was absent due to a groin injury and E. Smith was suspended after receiving a red card.

Analysis and predictions

This is a clash between two teams with similar form and attacking and defensive performance. However, FSV Mainz 05 has the home advantage and, more importantly, the absolute support of their head-to-head history. Despite the ongoing injury crisis, psychological factors could be the key to deciding the match.

The match is expected to be tense and low-scoring, as both attacking lines have been ineffective. With home advantage and historical support, a draw or a narrow victory for FSV Mainz 05 is the most likely scenario.

Team lineup updated at 20:53 on December 21, 2025

Official lineup

FSV Mainz 05

Diagram: 3-3-3-1

CoachUrs Fischer

Starting lineup:

• 33. Daniel Batz (G)
• 31. Dominik Kohr (D)
• 25. Andreas Hanche-Olsen (D)
• 48. Kacper Potulski (D)
• 21. Danny da Costa (M)
• 6. Kaishu Sano (M)
• 30. Silvan Widmer (M)
• 8. Paul Nebel (F)
• 10. Nadiem Amiri (M)
• 7. Jae-sung Lee (F)
• 17. Benedict Hollerbach (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Lasse Riess
• 16. Stefan Bell
• 22. Nikolas Veratschnig
• 15. Lennard Maloney
• 14. William Bøving
• 9. Arnaud Nordin
• 44. Nelson Weiper
• 11. Armindo Sieb
• 36. Fabio Moreno Fell

FC St. Pauli

Diagram: 3-5-2

CoachAlexander Blessin

Starting lineup:

• 22. Nikola Vasilj (G)
• 5. Hauke ​​Wahl (D)
• 25. Adam Dźwigała (D)
• 3. Karol Mets (D)
• 11. Arkadiusz Pyrka (M)
• 16. Joel Chima Fujita (M)
• 6. James Sands (M)
• 7. Jackson Irvine (M)
• 23. Louis Oppie (M)
• 27. Andreas Hountondji (F)
• 28. Mathias Pereira Lage (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Ben Voll
• 34. Jannik Thomas Robatsch
• 21. Lars Ritzka
• 2. Manolis Saliakas
• 24. Connor Metcalfe
• 20. Erik Ahlstrand
• 26. Ricky-Jade Jones
• 10. Danel Sinani
• 9. Abdoulie Ceesay