NAC Breda vs Excelsior Prediction - Eredivisie: A battle to escape relegation
With the relegation battle in the Dutch Eredivision entering a crucial stage, NAC Breda must capitalize on their home advantage to seek a victory against a struggling Excelsior team.
The match between NAC Breda and Excelsior will take place at 2:00 AM on February 7, 2026, at the Rat Verlegh Stadion. This is considered a crucial "relegation battle" for both teams in their efforts to stay in the top division of Dutch football. With home advantage, NAC Breda has the opportunity to close the gap with the safety zone, while Excelsior needs a boost to end their recent disappointing run of results.
Context and ranking position
Currently, both teams are in a very worrying situation. Excelsior is temporarily ranked 13th with 23 points after 21 rounds. Their form in the last 5 matches is extremely concerning, with no wins (4 draws and 1 loss). Meanwhile, the situation of the home team NAC Breda is even more dire, as they are second to last in the standings (17th position) with only 16 points.
| Team | Location | Point | Form in the last 5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 13 | 23 | Draws 4, Losses 1 |
| NAC Breda | 17 | 16 | Draw 2, Loss 3 |
Analyzing form and current playing style
NAC Breda: Hope from home advantage
Despite being in 17th place, NAC Breda's only bright spot is their ability to earn points at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Statistics show that all three of their wins this season have come at home. With 23 goals scored (an average of 1.1 goals per game), NAC Breda's attack isn't too bad, but their fatal weakness lies in their defense, having conceded 34 goals (an average of 1.6 goals per game).
Excelsior: A fragile defense
On the opposite side, Excelsior is also experiencing a turbulent season. Despite having a higher ranking than their opponent, the visitors' defense is even worse than NAC Breda's, conceding 37 goals in 21 matches (an average of 1.8 goals per game). On the road, Excelsior has only managed 2 wins in 10 away games, which will be a significant psychological hurdle when they face a NAC Breda team that is in a desperate situation.
History of confrontations and current team situation.
Recent head-to-head history slightly favors Excelsior, as they secured a narrow 1-0 victory in the first leg in November 2025. However, in the last five meetings, the balance has been clear, with each team having two wins and one draw.
- November 29, 2025: Excelsior 1 - 0 NAC Breda
- July 20, 2024: NAC Breda 1 - 1 Excelsior
- June 2, 2024: Excelsior 4 - 1 NAC Breda
- May 29, 2024: NAC Breda 6 - 2 Excelsior
- July 22, 2023: NAC Breda 2 - 0 Excelsior
In terms of personnel, the home team NAC Breda is facing serious setbacks as F. Jensen is definitely out due to injury, along with A. Salama, who is unavailable. Additionally, the availability of defender B. Kemper (injured) and midfielder M. Nassoh (ill) remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Excelsior has a relatively full squad, except for M. van Duinen, who is experiencing health issues and requires further assessment before the match.
Predicting tactics and results
Given the crucial nature of a relegation battle, both teams are likely to approach the game cautiously. However, NAC Breda, with the advantage of playing at home and having won all their matches so far this season, is considered to have a higher chance of securing points. Experts predict the home team has a 45% chance of winning, equivalent to a draw, while the away team's chances of winning are only 10%.
This is likely to be a low-scoring match (under 2.5 goals per team) due to the tense nature of the game and the cautious approach of both coaches. A safe bet would be a home win or a draw (Double chance).
Team lineup updated at 01:30 on 07/02/2026
Official lineup
NAC Breda
Diagram: 5-3-2
CoachCarl Hoefkens
Starting lineup:
- 99. Daniel Bielica (G)
- 32. Juho Talvitie (D)
- 3. Denis Odoi (D)
- 12. Leo Greiml (D)
- 22. Rio Hillen (D)
- 21. Jayden Candelaria (D)
- 16. Maximilien Balard (M)
- 10. Mohamed Nassoh (M)
- 14. Kamal Sowah (M)
- 7. Charles-Andreas Brym (F)
- 9. Moussa Soumano (F)
Substitutes:
- 31. Kostas Lamprou
- 1. Roy Kortsmit
- 2. Boyd Lucassen
- 25. Cherrion Valerius
- 15. Enes Mahmutović
- 8. Clint Leemans
- 90. Lewis Holtby
- 11. Raul Paula
- 24. André Ayew
- 55. Brahim Ghalidi
- 26. Pepijn Reulen
- 19. Amine Salama
Excelsior
Diagram: 4-2-3-1
CoachRuben den Uil
Starting lineup:
- 1. Stijn van Gassel (G)
- 2. Ilias Bronkhorst (D)
- 4. Casper Widell (D)
- 3. Rick Meissen (D)
- 12. Arthur Zagre (D)
- 14. Lewis Schouten (M)
- 20. Lennard Hartjes (M)
- 11. Gyan de Regt (M)
- 23. Irakli Yegoian (M)
- 7. Emil Hansson (M)
- 10. Noah Naujoks (F)
Substitutes:
- 16. Calvin Raatsie
- 15. Simon Janssen
- 5. Stan Henderikx
- 26. Miliano Jonathans
- 30. Derensili Sanches Fernandes
- 18. Chris-Kévin Nadje
- 6. Adam Carlén
- 25. Gijs van den Berg
- 33. Jerolldino Bergraaf
- 9. Szymon Włodarczyk
- 29. Mike van Dunen
