Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction - Primeira Liga
Guimaraes has a good chance of earning points away from home, boasting a superior head-to-head record against Nacional, a team currently struggling in the lower half of the league table.
The match between Nacional and Guimaraes in the final round of this season's Primeira Liga is crucial in determining the final standings. While Guimaraes is striving to maintain its position in the top eight, the home team Nacional is experiencing a turbulent season, currently sitting in 14th place.
00:00 on May 17th - The clash at Estádio da Madeira
Entering the 34th round, the gap between the two teams in the standings is quite large. Guimaraes is currently ranked 8th with 42 points, while Nacional is 14th with 31 points. Below is a summary table of the current positions and form of the two clubs:
| Team | Location | Point | Form in the last 5 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 8 | 42 | 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw |
| National | 14 | 31 | 2 wins, 3 losses |
Performance and professional statistics
Nacional is showing a clear lack of consistency. After 33 matches played, the team at Estádio da Madeira has only won 8 games but suffered 18 defeats. Their scoring efficiency is only 1.1 goals per game, while their defense concedes an average of 1.4 goals per game. Notably, Nacional has lost 9 home games this season.
On the other side of the pitch, Guimaraes boasts slightly better statistics. The away team has secured 12 wins in 33 matches. Although their defense isn't entirely solid, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, their attacking strength, averaging 1.2 goals per game, has helped them maintain a position in the upper half of the table. However, playing away from home presents a challenge, as Guimaraes has lost 10 away matches since the start of the season.
Historically, the visitors have the advantage in these encounters.
Data from the last 5 encounters between the two teams shows Guimaraes' dominance. The away team has won 3 matches, drawn 1, and lost only 1 match against Nacional.
- January 3, 2026: Guimaraes 2 - 1 Nacional
- May 3, 2025: Nacional 1 - 2 Guimaraes
- December 24, 2024: Guimaraes 2 - 2 Nacional
- April 27, 2021: Nacional 1 - 0 Guimaraes
- January 22, 2021: Guimaraes 3 - 1 Nacional
Analyzing tactics and predicting outcomes.
Based on current form and head-to-head record, experts rate Guimaraes higher in this match. The away team's chances of winning are set at 45%, equivalent to a draw (45%), while Nacional's chance of causing an upset is only 10%.
From a tactical standpoint, the match is not expected to be a high-scoring affair, as both teams have certain issues with their finishing. Predicted goals suggest that the home team, Nacional, is unlikely to score more than two goals, while Guimaraes is also predicted to score fewer than two goals.
Overall, with the goal of consolidating their 8th position, Guimaraes will strive to at least come away with one point. The safe bet for this match is a draw or an away win (Double chance).
