Parma vs Fiorentina Prediction - Serie A: A desperate desire to escape relegation

At 6:30 PM on December 27, 2025, the Stadio Ennio Tardini will become the focal point of the Serie A relegation battle as Parma takes on Fiorentina. This match is crucial for both teams in their efforts to improve their position in the standings before the end of 2025.

Current ranking position

Parma currently sits in 16th place with 14 points after 15 rounds. Meanwhile, Fiorentina is having a difficult season, languishing at the bottom of the table with only 9 points after 16 matches. The gap between the two teams is currently 5 points, making this direct confrontation a true "six-point" match.

Performance analysis and statistics

Parma, playing at home, is showing signs of instability, having won only one of their last five matches. Their attacking performance is rather modest, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. However, their home ground, Stadio Ennio Tardini, remains a crucial advantage, where they have secured the majority of their current points.

On the other side of the pitch, Fiorentina is mired in crisis. The visitors have only managed one win since the start of the season. Even more worrying, Fiorentina have yet to win away from home, with a record of four draws and four losses on the road. Their defense is the weakest point in the league, having conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game.

Head-to-head history: A record-breaking series of draws.

A particularly noteworthy statistic is that in the last five encounters between the two teams, the final result has always been a draw. These matches have often been very balanced and dramatic, ranging from a goalless draw in April 2025 to a thrilling 3-3 draw in March 2021. This demonstrates the special rivalry between the two clubs regardless of their positions in the league table.

Force situation

Both teams entered this match with significant personnel losses:

• Parma:Missing players M. Frigan (knee injury), A. Ndiaye (groin injury), and goalkeeper Z. Suzuki (finger injury). Defender A. Circati's availability remains uncertain due to a leg injury.
• Fiorentina:The list of absentees is extensive, including R. Gosens (thigh injury), T. Lamptey (knee injury), P. Mari (calf injury), and L. Ranieri (suspended due to accumulating yellow cards). The availability of J. Fazzini and R. Mandragora is uncertain.

Tactical Analysis and Predictions

With home advantage and a less depleted squad, Parma is considered more likely to win. However, a draw is also a very real possibility based on historical head-to-head data. Predictions favor Parma winning or drawing with a combined probability of up to 90%, while Fiorentina's chances of winning are only 10%.

Predicted result:Parma earns points (Win or Draw).

Team lineup updated at 18:08 on December 27, 2025

Official lineup

Parma

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachCarlos Cuesta

Starting lineup:

• 40. Edoardo Corvi (G)
• 27. Sascha Britschgi (D)
• 39. Alessandro Circati (D)
• 5. Lautaro Valentini (D)
• 14. Emanuele Valeri (D)
• 10. Adrián Bernabé (M)
• 16. Mandela Keita (M)
• 22. Oliver Sørensen (M)
• 7. Adrian Benedyczak (F)
• 9. Mateo Pellegrino (F)
• 17. Jacob Ondrejka (F)

Substitutes:

• 13. Vicente Guaita
• 66. Filippo Rinaldi
• 37. Mariano Troilo
• 63. Nicolas Trabucchi
• 15. Enrico Del Prato
• 23. Hernani
• 18. Mathias Fjørtoft Løvik
• 25. Benjamin Cremaschi
• 8. Nahuel Estévez
• 21. Gaetano Oristanio
• 19. Tjaš Begić
• 32. Patrick Cutrone
• 30. Milan Đurić
• 11. Pontus Almqvist

Fiorentina

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachPaolo Vanoli

Starting lineup:

• 43. David De Gea (G)
• 2. Dodo (D)
• 15. Pietro Comuzzo (D)
• 5. Marin Pongračić (D)
• 26. Mattia Viti (D)
• 27. Cher Ndou (M)
• 8. Rolando Mandragora (M)
• 44. Nicolò Fagioli (M)
• 65. Fabiano Parisi (F)
• 20. Moise Kean (F)
• 10. Albert Guðmundsson (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Luca Lezzerini
• 30. Tommaso Martinelli
• 23. Eman Košpo
• 60. Eddy Kouadio
• 21. Robin Gosens
• 14. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
• 7. Simon Sohm
• 29. Niccolò Fortini
• 91. Roberto Piccoli
• 99. Christian Kouamé
• 9. Edin Džeko