Qarabag vs Ajax Prediction - UEFA Champions League

Match context

The UEFA Champions League match between Qarabag and Ajax, scheduled for 00:45 on December 11, 2025, at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, is predicted to be unpredictable, as the two teams enter the game in completely contrasting form. While Qarabag is enjoying positive results, Ajax is mired in a serious crisis with a losing streak.

This is an opportunity for the home team to avenge their defeat in the first leg, while simultaneously putting the Dutch football giant in a more difficult position in the European arena.

Completely contrasting form.

The difference in recent form is the biggest highlight ahead of the match. Qarabag has shown consistency with 2 wins, 1 draw and only 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Looking at the entire season, the home team has played 11 matches, winning 7, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their attack has been effective with 23 goals, averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Conversely, Ajax is going through a terrible period, having lost all of their last five matches. The visitors' statistics are alarming: after five games, they haven't earned a single point, scoring only one goal while conceding 16 (an average of 3.2 goals conceded per game).

Head-to-head history and ranking context

Despite their poor form, Ajax were the winners in their most recent encounter. On October 24, 2024, they defeated Qarabag 3-0. This result could be an important psychological boost for the visitors in their current difficult circumstances.

In terms of league position, Qarabag is currently in 21st place with 7 points. Meanwhile, Ajax is in 36th place with no points, clearly reflecting their turbulent season.

Team news

Qarabag

The home team will be without several key players. Kady Borges and S. Mahammadaliyev are absent due to injury, while J. Montiel, A. Rzayev, and R. Sheydayev are also confirmed unavailable.

Ajax

Ajax's list of absentees is also quite long, significantly impacting the team's strength. Players unavailable include S. Berghuis (groin injury), W. Weghorst (ankle injury), and K. Taylor (injury). In addition, J. McConnell and J. Sutalo are also absent due to health issues.

Analysis and prediction of results

Based on the analysis of their form, Qarabag is considered the clear favorite in this match. Their home advantage and confidence from a consistent run of form provide a solid foundation for them to aim for a favorable result. Ajax's weak defense will be a target for Qarabag's attack to exploit.

However, past head-to-head results show that Ajax is still a formidable opponent. Nevertheless, with an attack that has only scored 1 goal and a defense that has conceded 16 goals in 5 matches, it is difficult for the visitors to pull off an upset. A win for Qarabag or a draw are the most likely scenarios.