VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin Prediction - Bundesliga

The Bundesliga match between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin takes place as both teams are striving to chase important goals in the standings. With the home advantage at MHPArena, Stuttgart is considered slightly more likely to secure all three points, thereby maintaining a safe distance from the chasing pack vying for European qualification.

Context and ranking position

Currently, VfB Stuttgart is in 5th place with 32 points after 17 matches. The team playing at MHPArena has shown formidable strength at home with 6 wins out of 10 matches since the start of the season. On the other hand, Union Berlin is ranked 9th with 23 points, maintaining a considerable distance from the leading group.

Current form of both teams

VfB Stuttgart is currently enjoying an impressive scoring record, averaging 1.9 goals per game. However, their defense still shows weaknesses, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. In their last five matches, the team has won three, drawn one, and lost only one.

For Union Berlin, their form has been somewhat inconsistent, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their attacking performance averages 1.4 goals per game, while their defense concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game. Union Berlin's away record is questionable, with only 3 wins in their last 8 away games.

Head-to-head history and key statistics

Based on the last 5 encounters, VfB Stuttgart holds the advantage with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Notably, the most dramatic draw between the two teams took place in April 2025 with a score of 4-4.

• August 23, 2025: Union Berlin 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart
• April 19, 2025: Union Berlin 4 - 4 VfB Stuttgart
• December 7, 2024: VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 Union Berlin
• March 9, 2024: VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Union Berlin
• November 1, 2023: VfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 Union Berlin

Force situation and personnel losses

Both teams entered this match with fairly long absence lists due to injuries and other reasons:

VfB Stuttgart

• A. Al Dakhil: Absent due to illness.
• B. El Khannouss: Absent due to international duty.
• L. Jacques: Thigh injury.
• T. Tomas: Muscle injury.
• D. Zagadou: Muscle injury.

Union Berlin

• D. Bogdanov: Absent due to minor collision.
• D. Kohn: Absent due to red card.
• T. Rothe: Injured.
• T. Skarke: Injured.
• R. Skov: Muscle injury.

Predicting the course of the match

Statistical analysis shows that VfB Stuttgart has a 45% chance of winning, equivalent to the probability of a draw. Union Berlin's chances of causing an upset are only 10%. Given the scoring efficiency of both teams, this match is predicted to be low-scoring (under 2.5 goals per team).

Overall, with home advantage and a favorable head-to-head record, VfB Stuttgart is likely to get points in this match. A win or a draw for the home team is the most likely scenario based on the current situation of both clubs.

Team lineup updated at 20:53 on 18/01/2026

Official lineup

VfB Stuttgart

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachSebastian Hoeness

Starting lineup:

• 33. Alexander Nubel (G)
• 4. Josha Vagnoman (D)
• 3. Ramon Hendriks (D)
• 24. Jeff Chabot (D)
• 7. Maximilian Mittelstädt (D)
• 28. Nikolas Nartey (M)
• 6. Angelo Stiller (M)
• 16. Atakan Karazor (M)
• 18. Jamie Leweling (F)
• 26. Deniz Undav (F)
• 10. Chris Führich (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Fabian Bredlow
• 29. Finn Jeltsch
• 15. Pascal Stenzel
• 2. Ameen Al-Dakhil
• 27. Badredine Bouanani
• 22. Lorenz Assignment
• 30. Chema Andrés
• 9. Ermedin Demirović
• 25. Jeremy Arevalo

Union Berlin

Diagram: 3-4-2-1

CoachSteffen Baumgart

Starting lineup:

• 1. Frederik Rønnow (G)
• 5. Danilho Doekhi (D)
• 14. Leopold Querfeld (D)
• 4. Diogo Leite (D)
• 19. Janik Haberer (M)
• 8. Rani Khedira (M)
• 13. András Schäfer (M)
• 18. Josip Juranović (M)
• 9. Livan Burcu (F)
• 6. Aljoscha Kemlein (F)
• 23. Andrej Ilić (F)

Substitutes:

• 31. Matheo Raab
• 34. Stanley N'Soki
• 11. Woo-Yeon Jeong
• 33. Alex Král
• 28. Christopher Trimmel
• 10. Ilyas Ansah
• 7. Oliver Burke
• 27. Marin Ljubičić
• 17. David Preu