Electricity demand increases by 9% and the target of 30 GW of gas-fired power: Energy is a growth variable in 2026.
Vietnam is accelerating its LNG power infrastructure and green transition to ensure energy security, create a stable macroeconomic foundation, and attract high-quality FDI by 2026.
In the context of a global economy facing numerous geopolitical shifts in 2026, energy has become a central factor influencing national growth and competitiveness. For Vietnam, ensuring energy security is not only a critical requirement for maintaining macroeconomic stability but also a strategic opportunity to promote a shift towards a sustainable development model.
Risk of disruption to global energy supply
Entering 2026, the global economy continues its recovery path, but in a fragmented state. According to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth this year will remain around 3.1%, lower than the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%. Notably, energy has emerged as a variable with the most far-reaching impact on the geopolitical landscape.
A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that, despite investments in clean energy exceeding $2 trillion annually, the market still faces risks of supply disruptions. Conflicts in the Middle East are significantly impacting vital shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has altered the outlook for the natural gas market, with a projected shortfall of approximately 120 billion cubic meters of LNG between 2026 and 2030 due to slow infrastructure development in Qatar.
Power system pressures and Vietnam's LNG strategy
In Vietnam, energy demand is increasing rapidly in line with the pace of industrialization. Data from the General Statistics Office shows that during the period 2021-2025, commercial electricity consumption increased by an average of 8-9% per year, higher than the GDP growth rate. By 2025, when GDP reaches 7.1% and import-export turnover reaches US$760 billion, the pressure on the national energy system will become increasingly evident.
Vietnam has now become a net importer of energy, especially coal and gas. According to the Power Development Plan VIII, the total capacity of power plants serving domestic needs will reach approximately 150 GW by 2030. Of this, LNG power is identified as a crucial base power source to ensure stability as the proportion of renewable energy increases (expected to account for 30-39% by 2030).
The target for LNG power generation capacity is 22-30 GW, accounting for approximately 14-20% of the total system by 2030. This shift requires modernizing the transmission grid, developing energy storage systems, and perfecting a competitive electricity market to compensate for supply shortages and attract foreign investment.
Green transition: A necessary condition for attracting FDI.
The energy transition process not only addresses the supply-demand imbalance but also opens up opportunities for the formation of new industries. The IEA forecasts that the global clean energy value chain could create a market worth trillions of USD by 2030, with Vietnam being an attractive destination thanks to its large market size and extensive network of FTAs.
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Strategic Brand and Competition Research, believes that green energy has become a strategic "plus point" to attract high-quality FDI. According to this expert, Vietnam needs to transform wind, solar, and hydropower resources into a stable supply capacity with consistent policies and reasonable pricing mechanisms.
Furthermore, regulations on transboundary carbon regulation are forcing economies to adapt. Proactively meeting sustainability standards helps Vietnam enhance its competitiveness, reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and assert its position in the global value chain. Ensuring energy security is a strategic task for restructuring the economy and realizing international environmental commitments.
