Nobel Peace Prize 2025: What are Trump's chances of winning?
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 10th in Oslo, Norway. In a world facing numerous conflicts, what are Donald Trump's chances?
Many promising candidates are on the nomination list.
According to information from the Nobel Committee, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has 338 nominees, including 244 individuals and 94 organizations.
Although the exact list is kept secret, many prominent names have been mentioned by experts. One of them is the Emergency Response Network in Sudan, where volunteers are dedicated to providing relief to people amidst war and famine.
In addition, Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the late Russian activist Alexei Navalny, is also seen as a symbol of the struggle for democracy.
Several other international organizations, such as the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), have also been mentioned as potential candidates.
Given that 2024 saw the highest number of armed conflicts since 1946, analysts suggest that the Nobel Committee is likely to “return to the classical spirit of peace” – prioritizing values such as human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and gender equality.
Last year, the award was given to the Nihon Hidankyo Foundation – a group of survivors of the atomic bombings in Japan – to honor their efforts in advocating for the abolition of nuclear weapons.
Some experts also predict that this year's Nobel Peace Prize could carry a broader political message if awarded to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres or humanitarian agencies such as UNHCR or UNRWA, in the context of increasing pressure on the world order.
However, the Nobel Committee is notoriously unpredictable, so the emergence of an unexpected name is still entirely possible.
What are Donald Trump's chances?
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he "deserves" the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to resolving a series of international conflicts.
He was nominated by a number of parliamentarians and foreign leaders, including US Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, all citing his role in the 2020 Abraham Accords and several ceasefire agreements in the Middle East and South Asia.
French President Emmanuel Macron believes that the only way for US President Donald Trump to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is to play a decisive role in ending the war in Gaza.
Macron argued that the United States was the only country with enough influence to directly impact the peace process, because Washington supplied the majority of weapons and military equipment used in the region.
However, Norwegian experts believe that the likelihood of Trump winning the award this year is very low. Professor Peter Wallensteen (Sweden) stated that the Nobel Committee needs time to comprehensively assess his political legacy, as many policies during his previous term, such as withdrawing the US from international organizations, initiating trade wars, or tightening academic freedom, contradict the spirit of peace and international cooperation advocated by Alfred Nobel.
