Nobel Peace Prize 2025: What are Trump's chances of winning?

Many bright faces in the nomination list

According to information from the Nobel Committee, 338 individuals and organizations were nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, including 244 individuals and 94 organizations.

Although the exact list is kept secret, many prominent names are still mentioned by experts. One of them is the Emergency Response Network in Sudan, where volunteers are dedicated to providing relief to people in the midst of war and famine.

In addition, Ms. Yulia Navalnaya, wife of the late Russian activist Alexei Navalny, is also considered a symbol of the struggle for democracy.

Several other international organizations such as the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) have also been mentioned as potential candidates.

With 2024 set to see the highest number of armed conflicts since 1946, analysts say the Nobel Committee is likely to “return to the spirit of classical peace” – prioritizing values ​​such as human rights, democracy, press freedom and gender equality.

Last year, the prize was awarded to the Nihon Hidankyo Foundation – a group of survivors of the atomic bombings in Japan that celebrates efforts to abolish nuclear weapons.

Some experts also predict that this year's Nobel Peace Prize could carry a broader political message if it is awarded to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres or humanitarian agencies such as UNHCR or UNRWA, in the context of the world order under much pressure.

However, the Nobel Committee is notoriously unpredictable, so the appearance of a surprise name is still entirely possible.

What are Donald Trump's chances?

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly affirmed that he “deserves” the Nobel Peace Prize for his contribution to resolving a series of international conflicts.

He was nominated by several lawmakers and foreign leaders, including US Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, all of whom cited his role in the 2020 Abraham Accords and several ceasefire agreements in the Middle East and South Asia.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the only way for US President Donald Trump to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is to play a decisive role in ending the war in Gaza.

Mr. Macron said that the US is the only country with enough influence to directly impact the peace process, because Washington is the supplier of most of the weapons and military equipment used in this region.

However, Norwegian experts believe that the possibility of Mr. Trump receiving the prize this year is very low. Professor Peter Wallensteen (Sweden) commented that the Nobel Committee needs time to fully evaluate his political legacy, because many policies in the previous term such as withdrawing the US from international organizations, starting trade wars or tightening academic freedom go against the spirit of peace and international cooperation proposed by Alfred Nobel.